499
FXUS61 KRNK 051736
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
136 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
2) BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT
BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
STORMS HAVE REACHED THE AREA, AND HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE THIS
MORNING, WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAVING OCCURRED WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 IN VA, WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS IN THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES, AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT
DOWN SEVERAL TREES, NOT SURPRISING GIVEN DCAPE ON THE SOUNDING
AT RNK ALREADY 1100 J/KG AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE
RIDING ALONG A STRONG DCAPE GRADIENT, ROUGHLY ORIENTED SW TO NE
FROM NC INTO SOUTHERN VA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME CAMS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, IN
THE NC PIEDMONT BY LATER TODAY. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 90S. SBCAPE OVER
THAT REGION IS OVER 2500 J/KG, AND 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF VA/NC BORDER. DCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH,
PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL NC, SO ANY STORMS LATER TODAY WILL
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE OVER NC, SO MOST SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH SOME MOISTURE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING IN, CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 77, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN
US BY MONDAY, AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION, PROMPTING A
FEW DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE HEAT BUILDS ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT
BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S IN THE WEST AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EAST, ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST RIDGE AND WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS HOT AS
LAST WEEK AT THIS TIME. A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OR INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND INTO THE VA SOUTHSIDE. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT ONLY TERMINAL THAT MAY
SEE ANY IMPACTS IS KDAN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCTS. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT
REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, WOULD BE MORE
TOWARDS CENTRAL NC.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z, EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TO IFR OR BELOW,
AND VSBYS LESS THAN 3SM FOR THE AREA TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, AFTER 15Z OR SO, BUT
SKIES WILL REMAIN OVC.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A LINGERING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST SUNDAY
PRIMARILY ACROSS MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS
HIGH ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AND COULD BRING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...AS/EB
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