463
FXUS61 KRNK 060015
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
815 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS THE FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
2) BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT
BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
STORMS HAVE REACHED THE AREA, AND HAVE BEEN ONGOING SINCE THIS
MORNING, WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAVING OCCURRED WEST OF
INTERSTATE 77 IN VA, WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS IN THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AT THIS TIME. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES, AND
ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS HAVE ALSO BROUGHT
DOWN SEVERAL TREES, NOT SURPRISING GIVEN DCAPE ON THE SOUNDING
AT RNK ALREADY 1100 J/KG AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE
RIDING ALONG A STRONG DCAPE GRADIENT, ROUGHLY ORIENTED SW TO NE
FROM NC INTO SOUTHERN VA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SOME CAMS ARE INDICATING
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION, BUT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, IN
THE NC PIEDMONT BY LATER TODAY. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN UNDER
CLEAR SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE 90S. SBCAPE OVER
THAT REGION IS OVER 2500 J/KG, AND 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER ALONG AND
SOUTH OF VA/NC BORDER. DCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH,
PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL NC, SO ANY STORMS LATER TODAY WILL
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT, WHICH COULD KEEP SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE OVER NC, SO MOST SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH SOME MOISTURE STILL IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AND MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING IN, CAN STILL EXPECT SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, ESPECIALLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 77, DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH EASTERN
US BY MONDAY, AND WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION, PROMPTING A
FEW DAYS OF QUIETER WEATHER. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ESPECIALLY AS THE HEAT BUILDS ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREAK IN THE HEAT LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BUT HEAT
BUILDS AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S IN THE WEST AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE EAST, ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 500MB RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
EAST RIDGE AND WILL BECOME MORE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN US, WHICH WILL BRING THE RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS HOT AS
LAST WEEK AT THIS TIME. A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE, AND BRING SOME COOLER CONDITIONS
BACK TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
OR SO. SOME FOG POSSIBLE WHERE IT CAN REMAIN CLEAR. LOW CLOUDS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY GIVEN A STRONG SIGNAL ON MODEL GUIDANCE THIS
EVENING. STILL NOT SO CERTAIN OF THIS YET BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, BUT GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONG ENOUGH
SIGNAL TO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IT FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY.
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN FURTHER
WEST ACROSS FAR SW VA AND PORTIONS OF SE WV. HAVE AT LEAST ADDED
A MENTION OF VCTS FOR BCB/BLF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AND COULD
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/BMG
AVIATION...AS/BMG/EB
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