683
FXUS61 KRNK 061043
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
643 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TODAY, BUT
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS THE FRONT HAS
SHIFTED INTO THE CAROLINAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE POSSIBLE SHOWERS TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH HEAT
BUILDING AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MORE POSSIBLE SHOWERS TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK, WITH HEAT
BUILDING AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS WELL PASSED THE REGION TODAY, AND IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS HAS LED TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THAT LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION COUPLED BY MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TODAY WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS. OVERALL, CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
CORRIDOR OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. IN GENERAL, THERE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ANY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION
TODAY AS SBCAPE VALUES LOOK TO PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN BELOW 1000
J/KG. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS; HOWEVER, AS DCAPE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 800-1000
J/KG RANGE.
BY MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSEQUENTLY DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SETTLE FURTHER INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ALSO LOOK TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY; HOWEVER, THE RIDGE LOOKS TO SLIDE BACK
EAST, AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
ONCE AGAIN. FORTUNATELY, CURRENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT KEEPS HEADLINE
HEAT OUT OF THE AREA THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME; HOWEVER, TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. AFTER TODAY'S RAINFALL, THIS WILL BE THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
COOL OFF ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CURRENTLY A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
SO FAR THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LWB CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING LIFR VSBYS. THERE ARE ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA NEAR BLF AND BCB THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, THEY
HAVE SO FAR AVOIDED BOTH OF THESE TERMINALS. THESE MVFR CIGS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. VSBYS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP QUITE AS LOW AS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LWB. THESE LOW CIGS CAUSING
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LOOK TO LIFT BY THE
13-15 UTC TIMEFRAME AT ALL TERMINALS. SHORTLY AFTER THESE
RESTRICTIONS LIFT, SHOWER AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOUNTAIN TERMINALS, WITH BCB,
ROA, BLF, AND LWB HAVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE SHOWERS TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
SUBSIDE BY THE 00 UTC MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
WINDS AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, AND COULD
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT AT LWB THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EB
AVIATION...EB
CLIMATE...PM
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