450
FXUS61 KRNK 210640
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
240 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, JUST REMOVING THUNDER FROM
WED-THU FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG WEDGE AND CHANGING
FROM SHOWERS TO RAIN.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING COOLER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING AT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY, WITH SEVERAL
VORTS MOVING ALONG IT ALOFT AND SHOULD SEE A DECENT SHOT OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHILE WE GET WEDGED IN.
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY, AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WE GET, COULD SEE SOME STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP, BUT
AGAIN LOOKS ISOLATED. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING,
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR THAT, WITH THE 00Z HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 3" RAIN IN 12 HRS HIGHLIGHTING THE
PIEDMONT OF NC TONIGHT. STILL MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE BLOTCHY WITH
THIS COVERAGE AND NOT SEEING A NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY, WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN
OCCURS TODAY-TONIGHT, AND WHETHER WE MAY NEED FLOOD WATCHES.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO RETURN TO READINGS NEAR
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR STARTING AT 06Z FOR MOST SITES, EXCEPT LWB
WITH VLIFR FOG. WILL LIKELY HAVE DENSE FOG AT LWB TIL SOME
SHOWERS/POTENTIAL MIXING ARRIVE TOWARD 12Z. A BIT OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
09-13Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST, REACHING KLWB AND KBLF BETWEEN
10Z AND 12Z OR SO, THEN FADING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. THEN,
MODELS ARE SHOWING STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TRACKING EAST WITH TIME. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN WITHIN THE STRONGER
STORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIME OF THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION, BUT MID AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE EARLIEST TIMING,
AS OF NOW. SUB-VFR LIKELY IN THE STORMS, OTHERWISE VFR. AS WE
HEAD INTO MONDAY EVENING MODELS HAVING CIGS DROPPING FAST WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER COVERAGE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, SO NOT A GOOD
NIGHT FOR FLYING COMING UP MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE, BUT LOWER ON THUNDERSTORM
TIMING MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR TUESDAY AS WELL, WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN. FOG AT NIGHT CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
PER FORECAST OF STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF WE
CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL, WITH POOR FLYING
WEATHER WED-THU.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/WP
AVIATION...AS/PM/WP
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