423
FXUS61 KRNK 212336
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
736 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, JUST REMOVING THUNDER FROM
WED-THU FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A STRONG WEDGE AND CHANGING
FROM SHOWERS TO RAIN.
LOWERED HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES TUE THROUGH THU BY A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH STRONG WEDGE SIGNAL.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS EVENING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE
REGION, WHICH HAS LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES DO STILL
REMAIN HOWEVER AS 30-50 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A FRONT
MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING COOLER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A
FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE AREA. TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER BY
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THIS CAN ALREADY BE NOTED BY STRATUS AND NE WINDS ALREADY
IMPACTING AREAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA. WEST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, ATMOSPHERE HAS SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZED
ALREADY, AND SCATTERED STRONG STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP.
STRONG HEATING CONTINUES OUTSIDE OF THE COOL AIR WEDGING SOUTH,
AND A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC MAY CLIP
90F THIS AFTERNOON. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE AND
CONGEAL, A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED FLOODING, THERE WILL
BE A POTENTIAL FOR THAT, WITH HREF PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN
3" RAIN IN 12 HRS HIGHLIGHTING THE PIEDMONT OF NC TONIGHT. STILL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE BLOTCHY WITH THIS COVERAGE AND NOT SEEING
A NEED FOR ANY FLOOD WATCHES, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
ONGOING DROUGHT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES WHERE BACKBUILDING OCCURS.
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL THAT FALLS THROUGH TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND STORMS TOMORROW COULD POSE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING, BUT AGAIN, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PINPOINT
ANY PARTICULAR REGION FOR A FLOOD WATCH.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE
DAYS SO IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO RETURN TO READINGS NEAR
NORMAL. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE OVERCAST
SKIES AND SOME FOG ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES WITH PERSISTENT
DRIZZLE.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA;
HOWEVER, SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST
WEST OF BLF AND LWB THAT MAY IMPACT THOSE TERMINALS LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH A STABLE AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION,
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MAKING IT
PAST THESE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIMINISH, WEDGING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A IFR TO LIFR CLOUD
DECK THAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD STARTING AT AROUND 06 UTC TUESDAY.
ALONG WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CIGS, LOW VSBYS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED, WITH VSBYS IN THE 2-6 MILE RANGE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD STARTING AT 06 UTC TUESDAY. WITH THESE
RESTRICTIONS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR ALL
PIEDMONT TERMINALS, AND EAST FOR MOUNTAIN TERMINALS. BOTH LYH,
ROA, BLF, BCB, AND LWB MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 12
UTC TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
PER FORECAST OF STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE IF WE
CLEAR OUT BY FRIDAY BUT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL, WITH POOR FLYING
WEATHER WED-THU WITH SUB VFR LIKELY. LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/EB
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