961
FXUS61 KRNK 220708
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
308 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT MAY NOT GO AWAY
COMPLETELY AS THIS MOVE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS HIGHEST OVER THE PIEDMONT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH
PLAIN RAIN/DRIZZLE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINTAINED BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS... TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
2) COOLER WEATHER AND A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS...
TRANSITIONING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND LAYS WEST TO
EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES THERE. SUB-SEVERE
STORMS AND SHOWERS WERE ONGOING EAST OF THERE AND INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 220 OR FROM WEST OF A LINE
FROM HOT SPRINGS TO MARTINSVILLE. TO THE EAST, NORTHEAST WINDS
WERE WEDGING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA. MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES AND TRAINING STORMS HAVE LED TO SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ANYMORE RAIN IN ISOLATED PARTS OF SMYTH TO
BLAND COUNTIES AND YADKIN TO SURRY COUNTIES MAY WARRANT FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS.
MID LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM
OF SHORT WAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MAIN
BOUNDARY WAVERING IN THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING
NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD LIFT NORTH AGAIN LATER TODAY AS A WARM
FRONT, AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE, SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THUNDER WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, WITH MODERATE WEDGING HAVING
BUILT IN ACROSS MORE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS WE SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MORE PLAIN RAIN AND DRIZZLE.
SPC HAS PARTS OF SW VA AMD MUCH OF NW NC IN A DAY 1 MARGINAL
RISK CONTOUR; WITH A PULSE STORM/MULTICELL ENVIRONMENT THAT
ISN'T UNREASONABLE THOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE AND PRODUCE
ISOLATED TREE DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS ARE HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH SLOW STORM MOTION WE ARE IN AN
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE FLASH-FLOODING MAY MATERIALIZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER WEATHER AND A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
ENE WINDS AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, MOST NOTICEABLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO WARM OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, AND THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT. WE BEGIN TO
REBOUND SOME BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN MORE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOTHING WARMER THAN 80F EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME OF THE SEASON. ALONG WITH THIS COOL DOWN, DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN EXTENDED BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES,
MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA, LESS
SO FOR LWB, LYH, AND DAN WHERE WEDGING IS TRYING TO BUILD IN.
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON FOR BLF, ROA, AND BCB THIS
MORNING. A FRONT HAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH IN NC BUT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
DAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, SCATTERED
THUNDER, AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG THROUGH THE DAY CYCLE.
LIFR/IFR STRATUS COVERS MOST OF THE WEDGED-IN REGION AND WILL
SPREAD TO ROA AND BCB IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BLF MAY
ACTUALLY HOLD ONTO MVFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AFTER 23/00Z EXPECT
A DROP EVERYWHERE TO LIFR/IFR ALONG WITH DENSE FOG AND CONTINUED
RAIN AND DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH THESE RESTRICTIONS, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST FOR LYH AND DAN, AND EAST FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS.
BOTH LYH, DAN, ROA, AND LWB MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS
AFTER 18 UTC TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY EXPECT MORE LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN
A WEDGING PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. WE BEGIN TO
DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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