813
FXUS61 KRNK 222322
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG A STALLED
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST WV AND NORTHWEST NC.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW STORMS
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND A
FEW STORMS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON,
CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA, THEN EAST
ACROSS ROANOKE AND INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. WITH THE FRONT
NEARBY, THIS SHOULD AID IN SUPPORTING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE FRONT. SEVERE STORMS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN THE PULSE-LIKE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION, A
FEW BRIEF STRONGER CELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES, AND ARE SLOW MOVING, SO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND OVERFLOWING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE. BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS DRIVING AT NIGHT, AS IT
CAN BE HARDER TO SEE WATER ON THE ROAD.
OVERNIGHT, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH A
STRONG NORTHEAST PUSH OF COOL MARITIME AIR IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC.
COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, SLOWLY
IMPROVING INTO FRIDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY, THEN
BECOMING DRY AND MILD FOR THE WEEKEND.
HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR WEDS/THU DUE TO THE PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNAL. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S BOTH
DAYS..FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS EVENING,
WITH POCKETS OF VFR IN SOME AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NEW
RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LOWER AREAWIDE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WEDGE SETTLES IN OVER
THE REGIONS. CEILINGS LESS THAN 1KFT ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH RAIN AND DRIZZLE, AND FOG, BRINGING DOWN
VSBYS PERIODICALLY AS WELL. RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BETWEEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS OR SO,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 23 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY EXPECT MORE LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN A WEDGING
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AS/BMG
AVIATION...AS/BMG
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