023
FXUS61 KRNK 230709
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
309 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND MILDER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT DRIZZLE AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH
MIDDAY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT DRIZZLE AND RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WE REMAIN IN A CHAOTIC MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE
DAY 7 FORECAST, WITH THE BRUNT OF IT BEING WE WILL BE UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PERIODS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRENGTHENING
WEDGING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
THIS WEDGE WILL HOLD, ALLOWING MOIST AIR TO OVERTOP IT,
PRODUCING PLENTY OF STRATUS, FOG, DRIZZLE, AND THE OCCASIONAL
RAIN SHOWER THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY. THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF
RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS OVER NW NC, WHERE STORM TOTALS LAST
NIGHT RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE
MUCH LIGHTER, WITH BOONE, NORTH WILKESBORO, AND JEFFERSON ALL
SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS.
TODAY, EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HUMID BUT COOL CONDITIONS.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE MIDWEST, AND WILL TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOME MODERATE TO HEAVIER
RAINFALL AFTER ABOUT 2 PM. CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF
THE NW NC MOUNTAINS AS PWATS ARE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG WEDGE IN PLACE AND NOT
BEING SURE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF IT, DID NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE IT. THE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
PWATS PLUMMET BY FRIDAY MORNING TO A THIRD TO A HALF AN INCH
FROM OVER AN INCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE NNW.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTH THURSDAY, WHICH WILL HELP THE CAD REGIME ERODE.
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH
SKY COVER GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY MORNING.
COOLER WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FALL-LIKE, CLOSE TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CONDITIONS VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
DESPITE A WEDGE IN PLACE, WITH MVFR IN ROA, LWB, AND (SOMEHOW)
LYH. OTHER TERMINALS HAVE LOWERED TO IFR. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO
DROP TO LIFR/IFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALONG WITH RAIN, DRIZZLE,
AND FOG, BRINGING DOWN VSBYS PERIODICALLY AS WELL. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN WILL FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INITIALLY IMPACTING AREAS WEST OF
BCB, THEN SHIFTING EAST.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BETWEEN 5 TO 12 KNOTS OR SO,
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 23 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT, WITH GUSTS FADING MORE AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY EXPECT MORE LIFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG IN A WEDGING
PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THE WEEKEND.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SH
AVIATION...SH
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