047
FXUS61 KRNK 250644
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
244 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIETER WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: QUIETER WEATHER LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE REGION IS IN FOR A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE PREVIOUS BATCH OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC LATER TODAY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A SECONDARY LOW OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
VA/NC BORDER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF THE FUJIWHARA EFFECT WHERE THE TWO LOWS WILL REVOLVE
AROUND EACH OTHER BEFORE COMBINING BY SATURDAY. THIS THEN
NOR'EASTER WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC UNTIL IT
FINALLY NAVIGATES TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRY AND COOL/MILD
WEATHER TODAY AND SATURDAY. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AS A RESULT WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH IN THE PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT TOO
CERTAIN HOW WESTWARD THE NOR'EASTER WILL BE ON SATURDAY, SO
GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE
MID-LEVEL COMPONENT OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SEND ENERGY THROUGH
THE EASTERN CONUS BUT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. "WORSE" CASE SCENARIO IS LIKELY SOME
PERIODS OF CLOUDY SKIES IN BETWEEN CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.
THE NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR AWAY FROM US BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AND A RIDGE OVER THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE
NORTHERLY WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY. LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL
CONUS AND POTENTIALLY REACHING THE EAST COAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
TIMING OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BERMUDA
THAT REPLACES THE NOR'EASTER MAY BLOCK THE TROUGH ENTIRELY. STILL,
THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE LIKELY AT KBLF AND KLWB.
THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE OF FOG AT KBCB BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH CLEAR SKIES
PREVAILING, WIND WILL BE THE FINAL FACTOR ON FOG PRODUCTION. AS
USUAL, FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH FOR THE ENTIRETY OF FRIDAY AS A NOR'EASTER
DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
THERE TO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST AT THE MOUNTAINS
FOR THIS EARLY MORNING AND THEN FOR THE PIEDMONT (INCLUDING
KDAN AND KLYH) FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE BETWEEN 15-25 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
ASIDE FROM COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS, BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY MORNING FOG MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT SELECT LOCATIONS BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE TO PERSIST AS
THE NOR'EASTER HOVERS EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. VFR SKIES ARE LIKELY
AS A RESULT (OUTSIDE OF FOG) FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG
AVIATION...CG
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