119
FXUS61 KRNK 252047
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FROST TO SOME OF THE ELEVATED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH
AS BURKES GARDEN, VA.
ALSO ADDED ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED FROM THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER WEATHER, FEATURING COOL OVERNIGHTS AND WARM
AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER WEATHER, FEATURING COOL OVERNIGHTS AND
WARM AFTERNOONS.
CLEAR SKIES AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A COASTAL
LOW IS ENHANCING DRY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S. A
FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SLIPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S WHICH SUGGESTS
ONCE WE DECOUPLE THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE A
SUBSTANTIAL NOSE DIVE AFTER SUNSET. GFS-BASED COOP GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME OF OUR NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT...PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN VA, WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS WV, AND JEFFERSON NC. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...YIELDING A
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY. STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE LOW MAY RETROGRADE WEST ON
SUNDAY AND STALL ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS APPEARS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME CLOUDINESS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HAVE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE I64 CORRIDOR GIVEN ENOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN BY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SHOULD SEE
INCREASINGLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK GIVEN
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND RETURN FLOW. OTHER THAN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS SUN/MON, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE 24HR TAF PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG ACROSS FAVORED MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS AROUND DAYBREAK...LWB
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED AGAIN.
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20KTS UNTIL SUNSET, BECOMING
CALM AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 20KTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
OUTSIDE OF A DAILY CHANCE OF PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/PM
AVIATION...BMG/PM
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