048
FXUS61 KRNK 110620
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
220 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO HEADLINE CHANGES. ADJUSTED RAINFALL TOTALS SOMEWHAT AND
CLEARING THINGS OUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, THEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE
PIEDMONT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
2) DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOOK FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING RAINS INTO THE MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE, THEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE
PIEDMONT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH AT A STEADY CLIP THIS
MORNING. PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING BUT OVERALL
RATES AND DURATION HAVE OFFSET ANY FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOWEVER, SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS ARE
RISING WITH A FEW IN WATAUGA COUNTY IN MINOR FLOOD.
SOME RAIN GAGES IN THE MESONET NETWORK HAVE HAD 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE VA BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF FLOYD.
HIGH-RES MODELS TEND TO LEAN TOWARD HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT STILL ENOUGH IN THE
FLOOD WATCH AREA TO KEEP IT. FURTHER EAST, DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS TO PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS OUTSIDE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS, OR ANY CULVERTS BLOCKED WITH LEAVES
CAUSING SOME WATER OVERFLOWING DITCHES. THE AIRMASS WILL TAKE ON
A MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK INTO THE LATE MORNING WITH A BAND OF
SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS MOVING UP FROM CENTRAL NC INTO THE VA
PIEDMONT. WILL SEE HOW QUICKLY THE STABLE AIRMASS GIVES WAY TO
SOME DESTABLIZATION WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOOKING AT CONVECTIVE
MODELS AND NEURAL NETWORK OUTPUT ALONG WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION
FAVORS ALONG/EAST OF A LYNCHBURG TO YANCEYVILLE LINE TO HAVE
ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREATS, WITH BEST CHANCES FURTHER EAST.
FURTHER WEST, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
THE GRADIENT WIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS ARE ALSO SUBSIDING
SO MAY DROP THE WIND ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING. ANY WINDS OVER
35 MPH COULD STILL DROP A WEAKER OR DEAD TREE SO WILL WAIT TIL
GUSTS OVERALL DROP UNDER 35 MPH BEFORE CANCELING.
WE START DRYING OUT THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THEN MAY GET SOME SHOWERS FROM THE UPPER TROUGH/ISAIAS REMNANT
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY, ALL REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE
REGION WITH JUST SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND UPSLOPE SHOWERS FOR
THE WESTERN SLOPES THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. DRY THROUGH MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH POSSIBLY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.
BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND ISAIAS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT LOOK
TO ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES ABOUNDING. ENSEMBLES/NBM FAVOR SOME RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NOTE: AMD NOT SKED FOR BOTH KDAN AND KBLF DUE TO COMMS OUTAGES.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING WITH
LIFR POTENTIAL IN RAIN FOR MOST SITES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO
REMAINS INTO MID MORNING. WILL SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR
TO VFR BY AFTERNOON, THOUGH DROPPING BACK AGAIN THE MOUNTAINS
TO MVFR OR LOWER BEFORE 06Z/MONDAY. AFTER 12-15Z, ANY SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED SO LEFT IT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN
COME AROUND TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALONG/WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE, KEEPING SUB-VFR IN PLACE FOR BCB/BLF/LWB INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
BEYOND MONDAY, EXPECTING MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER AND A RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD VFR LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF NC/SOUTHWEST VA WILL KEEP THE FLOODING THREAT
ELEVATED, THOUGH SO FAR SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALLER RIVERS
HAS OCCURRED, RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH AND RAIN
HAS MOVED THROUGH IN QUICKER BURSTS. STILL IF ANY CONVECTION
OCCURS AND RATES INCREASE, FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY
OCCUR.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ015>017-032.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042-043-508.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...BMG/JCB/WP
HYDROLOGY...AS/BMG
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