133
FXUS61 KRNK 111757
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
157 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE AND FLOOD THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST UPDATED WITH RECENT GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS LARGELY
DIMINISHED AND BECOME FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. SHOWER CHANCES
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER BECOME CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS.
2) DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED AND BECOME FOCUSED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND LATER BECOME CONFINED
TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HEAVY RAIN DID CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST, THEN A STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE FLIRTED WITH
THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA BUT THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOOKS TO
HAVE REMAINED EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BORDER WHICH HAS
LIMITED THE SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ONCE THIS PIECE OF
OCCLUDED ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD FILL BACK IN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW IS
STILL WEST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR SOME CONTINUED PVA AND UPPER
FORCING. TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MONDAY SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR MORE OF AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. MONDAY DAYTIME LOOKS TO BE DRY UNDER NW FLOW BUT QUITE
GUSTY. THE GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL.
BUILDING RIDGE BEHIND ISAIAS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONT LOOK
TO ARRIVE ANYTIME BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES ABOUNDING. ENSEMBLES/NBM FAVOR SOME RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LIMITED CHANCES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND TEMPS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HEAVY RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BE MORE CONFINED TO
KBLF AND KLWB INTO TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER COULD BRING SOME MVFR
VSBYS. MANY OF THE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE IFR/MVFR CIGS
AND POSSIBLY LOWER TO LIFR THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MOUNTAIN
SITES MAY CONTINUE THE LOWER CIGS INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHILE THE
OTHERS SHOULD HAVE SOME SCATTERING/IMPROVEMENT BY LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING. INITIAL WINDS NE TO SE UNDER 10 KTS THEN
SHIFTING WEST TO NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MAGNITUDES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY TO 10-16 KTS GUSTING 20-26
KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
AFTER MONDAY MORNING IT SHOULD BE VFR INTO MIDWEEK, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL SUB- VFR CIGS IN THE WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY ALONG WITH
A FEW SHOWERS.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/WP
AVIATION...AB/WP
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