654
FXUS61 KRNK 130630
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
230 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN THREAT OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGING FRONT FRIDAY
TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR 5H HEIGHTS TO BUILD HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AIDING IN HEATING UP THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO REACH CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONT BRINGS MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY WITH AIRMASS CHANGE
FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HAVING A BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR HAVING MEASURABLE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS COMPARED TO
THE PIEDMONT.
A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG MAINLY NORTH OF
I-64. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY- LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S F IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1250 J/KG
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN FRONT TRACKS ACROSS FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPS DROP FROM THE 70S/80S FRIDAY
TO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE AS HIGH AS A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONLY
GET INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY MORNING, SO FAR,
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE LWB WITH VLIFR FOG
THROUGH 12-13Z, AND POTENTIAL MVFR TO IFR FOG AT BCB 10-12Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FORECAST IS HIGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO AND
ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BREEZY/WIND BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
RETURNING TO VFR.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 87
DANVILLE 87/1940 89
BLACKSBURG 84/1962 82
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 79
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...DS/JCB/WP
CLIMATE...WP
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