000
FXUS61 KRNK 131723
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
123 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN THREAT OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGING FRONT FRIDAY
TO COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR 5H HEIGHTS TO BUILD HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AIDING IN HEATING UP THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO REACH CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONT BRINGS MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY WITH AIRMASS CHANGE
FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HAVING A BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR HAVING MEASURABLE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS COMPARED TO
THE PIEDMONT.
A FEW STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG MAINLY NORTH OF
I-64. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY- LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S F IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1250 J/KG
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN FRONT TRACKS ACROSS FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS TEMPS DROP FROM THE 70S/80S FRIDAY
TO THE 40S AND 50S FRIDAY EVENING.
THERE COULD BE AS HIGH AS A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY ONLY
GET INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SUNDAY MORNING, SO FAR,
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH FROST IN THE PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/STATUS HAS DISSIPATED. THIS
MOISTURE IS NOW BEING REDISTRIBUTED AT THE LCL AS SOME ISOLATED
CUMULUS AROUND 4000 FT AGL IN AREAS NORTH OF KLWB AND BETWEEN KTNB
AND KHLX. OTHER SPOTTY CU OF SIMILAR ALTITUDE ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NOT ENOUGH DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO CONSTITUTE A BKN-OVC CEILING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN, SOME
RIVER/MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STATUS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT NOT AS EXPANSIVE OF COVERAGE AS THIS MORNING.
LATE TONIGHT 850MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 TO 30
KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF KROA.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WITHIN THIS REGION OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE, BEFORE SURFACE HEATING START TO MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RIVER/VALLEY FOG, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW
PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 87
DANVILLE 87/1940 89
BLACKSBURG 84/196282
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 79
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CG/WP
AVIATION...DS
CLIMATE...WP
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