301
FXUS61 KRNK 140510
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
110 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
2) FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN THREAT OF
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS WEDNESDAY.
LOOK FOR 5H HEIGHTS TO BUILD HEAD INTO MIDWEEK WITH WESTERLY
FLOW AIDING IN HEATING UP THE LOWER LEVELS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO REACH CLOSE TO OR EVEN EXCEED RECORDS. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH MAINLY A MOUNTAIN
THREAT OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER FRONT
FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE HAVING A BETTER
PROBABILITY FOR HAVING MEASURABLE SHOWERS/FEW STORMS COMPARED TO
THE PIEDMONT. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR, BUT OVERALL
MORE ORGANIZED AND STRONGER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A
BACKDOOR FRONT SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, WITH A SHARP COOL DOWN
FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOT MUCH RAIN
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRIDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH MORE
ISOLATED CHANCE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH FROST IN THE
PIEDMONT ON SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST TO WEST. ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF IN WV TIL VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
AND TOO LOW CHANCE TO HAVE IN THE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 87
DANVILLE 87/1940 89
BLACKSBURG 84/1962 83
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 79
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...WP
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