220
FXUS61 KRNK 141039
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
639 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOOK FOR POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM CHANCES TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
3) STRONG FRONT BRINGS BLUSTERY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH NORTHERN FRINGE OF 5H RIDGE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND WESTERLY FLOW TO SEND TEMPS 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH RECORDS ATTAINABLE AT
LEAST FOR OUR PIEDMONT/ROANOKE LOCATIONS. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT-THURSDAY MAINLY ACROSS WV AND THE ALLEGHANYS.
WEST-EAST FRONT BACKDOORS IN TONIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT
ACROSS WV/SHENANDOAH VALLEY PUSHING ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY. A
MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO A TIGHTER GRADIENT OF WHERE MEASURABLE
SHOWERS OCCUR VERSUS THE HAVE NOTS. AREAS ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR AND MAYBE AS FAR SOUTH AS BLUEFIELD TO ROANOKE WILL SEE
SHOWER CHANCES TONIGHT-THURSDAY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AREAS FROM SOUTHSIDE VA INTO NC FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO PIEDMONT
STAY FAIRLY DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY BRINGS BLUSTERY WINDS AND
COOLER TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
A STRONG FRONT AND DECENT 5H TROUGH ARRIVE FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE MOUNTAINS THEN A TYPICAL JUMP TO
THE PIEDMONT AND POINTS EAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WINDS AND THE COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS ARE SHOWING IMPRESSIVE 6 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 8-12 MB
RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
8H JET 45-50 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE PATTERN LOOK FOR
FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD ALONG OUR BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES GO FROM 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE COURSE OF 24 HRS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. STILL LOOKS REASONABLE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR SAT NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WITH WINDS WEAKENING FROST
STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RETURN
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BE GETTING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL
MONDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS START TO ENCROACH ON THE LWB AREA AND
POSSIBLY BLF AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD STAY LOWER
TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS, BUT THINK SUB-VFR CIGS IN THE 1-3KFT RANGE
SHOULD REACH LWB/BLF AFTER 08Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME POCKETS OF SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 88
DANVILLE 87/1940 90
BLACKSBURG 84/1962 82
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 78
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMG/WP
AVIATION...DS/WP
CLIMATE...WP
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