664
FXUS61 KRNK 141837
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
237 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST UPDATED BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TODAY.
2) FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
3) STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY.
CONTINUED UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS REACHING VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO OR
MORE. SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BREAK RECORDS
TODAY BY SEVERAL DEGREES. TEMPS SHOULD BE LIMITED A BIT MORE WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, THEN BACK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH RECORD HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES. SEE RECORDS AND FORECAST BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A SWITCH TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ADVECTS AN ELONGATED MOISTURE AXIS
AND CORRESPONDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO
OF THE CWA FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF PRECIP
CHANCES. IT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SCATTERED SHOWERS SINCE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE LACKING.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE QUICKLY TRANSITION OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF STORMS WITH
AGAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS KICKING IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON USHERING IN. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A ROLLERCOASTER OF
CHANGE AS HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY MORNING IS GOING TO HAVE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PROGGED LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THIS COULD
AGAIN BE THE CASE FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SOME STRATO CU NEAR THE MOUNTAIN SITES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 3-5
KFT RANGE OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT THEN MVFR TO IFR
CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR KLWB, KLYH, AND KROA THURSDAY
MORNING. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO INCREASES FOR MOST OF THE SITES
THURSDAY AS WELL. WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT, SOME
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE TODAY OCTOBER 14TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 86/1941 88
LYNCHBURG 85/1985 88
DANVILLE 87/1940 89
BLACKSBURG 84/1962 82
BLUEFIELD 82/1954 78
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY OCTOBER 16TH.
SITE RECORD HIGH/YEAR FORECAST HIGH
ROANOKE 85/1930 86
LYNCHBURG 89/1897 85
DANVILLE 89/1985 87
BLACKSBURG 82/1919 80
BLUEFIELD 81/1989 74
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION...AB/WP
CLIMATE...AB/WP
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