970
FXUS61 KRNK 150603
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
203 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES, WIND GUSTS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASED FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM CHANCES TODAY.
2) STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDES SHOWER/FEW STORM
CHANCES TODAY.
A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO THE VA/NC BORDER TODAY WITH
SHOWERS/FEW STORMS PREVALENT MAINLY NORTH OF U.S. 460 WITH LESS
CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHIFT IN
THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST NORTH OF IT SHOULD KEEP CLOUD
COVER AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE A DICHOTOMY ON HIGHS WITH
60S NORTH OF I-64 AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ROA/LYH TO MID
80S IN THE NC PIEDMONT.
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WITH SHOWERS FADING
EXCEPT TOWARD WV/ALLEGHANY OF VA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG FRONT LATE FRIDAY TO BRING BLUSTERY WINDS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
WE QUICKLY TRANSITION OUT OF THE ZONAL FLOW WITH THE APPROACH OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND SHARP ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE FORM OF STORMS WITH
AGAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GREATER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE IN THE WEST MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THIS FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS KICKING IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON USHERING IN. IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE A ROLLERCOASTER OF
CHANGE AS HIGHS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S FOR MUCH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE PIEDMONT.
SUNDAY MORNING IS GOING TO HAVE FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH PROGGED LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE PIEDMONT. THIS COULD
AGAIN BE THE CASE FOR MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CIGS ARE APPROACHING THE MOUNTAINS
AND WITH THE FRONT DRIVING SOUTHWARD TODAY MODELS HAVE CIGS
LOWERING THROUGH INTO 12Z, WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHEAST TO EAST. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT VSBYS AT TIMES
MORE-SO ACROSS LWB THIS MORNING.
BLF WILL LIKELY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT, SOME
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LOOK FOR
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER NORTH
AND DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AB/DS/WP
AVIATION...AB/DS/WP
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