365
FXUS61 KRNK 160751
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
RAIN CHANCES WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS
EVENING, THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT ARRIVING TODAY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
2) CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FROST AND POCKETS OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT ARRIVING TODAY WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
STARTING THE MORNING OFF WITH LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
AND AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER
VALLEY WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 10 AM AS WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
TODAY WILL PROVIDE THE LAST OF THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR
A WHILE AS WARM AIR POOLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND
INTO THE 80S FURTHER EAST, WILL BE TESTING THE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 85 FOR ROANOKE IF CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP EARLY
ENOUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
RECORDS FOR SEVERAL OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, TRIGGERING A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG
ITS LEADING EDGE. THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST QUICKLY, REACHING
THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LYNCHBURG AND DANVILLE BY AROUND
8 PM AND EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST BY 10 PM. FORECASTING
MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
LIMITED ENERGY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THERE.
ANY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY
LIMITED. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AS A SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, WITH LINGERING RAIN FORECAST TO
TAPPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 15 MPH AND LOCALLY 25 MPH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
DURING MID-MORNING AND THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, AND WILL THEN
INCREASE INTO THE 20 MPH TO LOCALLY 35 MPH RANGE FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR FROST AND POCKETS OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING AND SKIES CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
THERE ARE ALSO SIGNALS THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUNDAY, EFFECTIVELY
ENDING THE GROWING SEASON THERE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT
THE COVERAGE OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND BEYOND
THOSE LOCATIONS HOWEVER, GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT WINDS MAY
REMAIN JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO MIX THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT
DOWN TO GROUND-LEVEL. STILL, DAY SHIFT MAY OPT TO ISSUE A
FREEZE WATCH FOR SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LATER TODAY IF NEWER
DATA SUPPORTS IT.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NEXT WORKWEEK. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STARTING THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, AND WITH POCKETS OF FOG IN PLACE IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.
GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TODAY, WINDS SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 14Z, ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
TO IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 16Z. GUSTS WILL RANGE
FROM 15KT TO 20KT FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS KBLF AND KLWB IN SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA DURING THE 20Z TO 22Z TIMEFRAME, TRIGGERING A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, IN ADDITION
TO A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH QUICKLY
EAST, REACHING KDAN AND KLYH DURING THE 17/00Z TO 17/02Z
TIMEFRAME, TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY OF A FEW STORMS.
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUST IN THE 20KT TO THE LOCALLY 30KT
RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY END BY
AROUND SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20KT AND
30KT FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY EVENING TO 10KT OR LESS AROUND
SUNSET. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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