451
FXUS61 KRNK 161752
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE PIEDMONT
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY,
SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE AREA, CURRENTLY
ACROSS CENTRAL WV, AND IS TRIGGERING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THAT
AREA. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, AND LOOKS TO REACH THE AREA
BY 4 PM OR SO TODAY. WITH SOME MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, AND
DECENT WARMING TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE STILL
EVEN IN THE WEST HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY RISE INTO THE
MID 70S, SO STILL HAVE TIME FOR A FEW MORE DEGREES OF HEATING TO
OCCUR BEFORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FROM THE APPROACHING
FRONT ARRIVES.
THE 500MB TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, AND SO EXPECT SHOWERS
TO LINGER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON,
SHOWERS WILL ERODE GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST, LEAVING THE REST OF
THE DAY DRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED, MAINLY FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND VA SOUTHSIDE, SO COULD NOW SEE UP TO A HALF OF AN INCH
OF RAIN FOR THOSE AREAS, AND BETWEEN TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, PEAKING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY SUNSET
SATURDAY, THOUGH TURNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY. GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25
TO 35 MPH, LOCALLY HIGHER ALONG THE RIDGES. MAKE SURE TO SECURE ANY
OUTDOOR HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: FROST IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF
FROST TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMER WINDS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS OVER THE
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES IN THE MOUNTAINS, FROM GREENBRIER COUNTY WV TO
WATAUGA COUNTY NC, WHERE LOOK TO FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. THE
ELEVATED VALLEYS WILL BE EVEN MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST, AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES OVERNIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TAKE STEPS NOW TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
NOT AS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FROST FARTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE, AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD AS WELL, BUT NOT QUITE
AS COLD. STILL COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAVIER COAT OR AN EXTRA
LAYER OR TWO WHILE WAITING AT THE BUS STOP. AFTER THAT, TEMPERATURES
START TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE COMING INTO CONSENSUS ON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ALOFT BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS THE COAST, AND A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
ONCE IT MOVES OFFSHORE; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
DISAGREEMENT IN THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF THE UPPER CUT OFF
LOW. WHILE ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COASTS,
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
PIEDMONT AND SOUTHSIDE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING,
EVENTUALLY BRINGING AN END TO VFR CONDITIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING. ALONG WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS, A SHARP WIND SHIFT WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. AS THIS OCCURS, EXPECT A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR BY SUNSET. LOWER STRATUS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS REACHING IFR
WITH PERHAPS A FEW MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS REACHING LIFR THROUGH DAYBREAK ON
SUNDAY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME RAIN CONTINUING FOR LYH/DAN BEYOND THE 18Z/2PM SATURDAY. ONCE
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW VFR THIS EVENING, SUB-VFR FOR NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID 24HR TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
QUICK WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST...20-25KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
LOW PRESSURE MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
SATURDAY EVENING TO 10KT OR LESS AROUND SUNSET, GOING LIGHT/CALM
OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR VAZ007-009-010-012-015.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR WVZ042>044-507-508.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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