005
FXUS61 KRNK 170706
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
306 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN THIS MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
2) CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN THIS MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT'S RECENT PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOWER
MID-ATLANTIC, WILL NOW TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE DAWN,
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WHERE
A FEW LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH. THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA WILL RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN, OR
LESS. AFTER SUNRISE, RAIN WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS EXITING THE SOUTHSIDE, COUPLED WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER DURING MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC, TO
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES. SPEEDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES, HOWEVER LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOMEWHAT
BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH DAWN SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR AREAS OF FROST AND
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE PASSAGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EARLY SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AREAWIDE, BELIEVE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO THE LOW 30S IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS, EVEN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID-30S.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY REMAIN A LITTLE TOO BREEZY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR THE WIDESPREAD FORMATION OF FROST, BUT
MAY SEE POCKETS OF FROST DEVELOP WHERE WINDS CAN MANAGE TO
DIMINISH TO NEAR-CALM SPEEDS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF FROST AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE A STRONG
PROBABILITY THAT SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE DAMAGED OR KILLED
BY THE COLD. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TODAY TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION BE COVERING IT OR MOVING IT INDOORS.
LOOKING TO MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
FOOTHILLS, REINTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AND AREAS OF
FROST CAPABLE OF DAMAGING OR KILLING SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE COMING WORKWEEK,
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST DURING THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. IMPACTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE LIMITED FOR OUR AREA,
THOUGH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY ADVANCE AS FAR
WEST AS THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING LOW VFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS, AS WELL AS AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS
DRIER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH, CLOUD
BASES WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE CLOUDS SCATTER DURING MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING, WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM
20KT FOR MOST OF THE AREA, TO AS HIGH AS 35KT ALONG THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT INTO THE 2KT TO 7KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ003-019.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...NF
AVIATION...NF
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