568
FXUS61 KRNK 171743
AFDRNK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FROST IN THE
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE 500MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER AIR TO
CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH FOR
MOST, AND UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGELINES. WINDS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE AND THE PIEDMONT MAY STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE MIXED WELL ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THE MORE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN THE WEST.
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND MID TO UPPER
30S IN THE PIEDMONT. A FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. EFFORTS SHOULD BE MADE TODAY TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE VEGETATION BY COVERING IT OR MOVING IT INDOORS.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE COLD AS WELL, SO STILL
PLAN TO KEEP VEGETATION COVERED OR INSIDE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT, AND
TO WEAR A HEAVIER COAT OR AN EXTRA LAYER OR TWO WHILE WAITING
AT THE BUS STOP.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE NEXT
WORKWEEK, WITH BROAD 500MB TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL, WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO WIDESPREAD VFR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY SOME SCT CIGS 2KFT-3KFT
WITH BKN ABOVE 3KFT. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTS FROM THE NORTH TO 25KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY RETURN TO THE EAST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ007-009>020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ022>024-
032>035.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ001-002-018.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ003-019.
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ042>044-507-
508.
DISCUSSION...AS
AVIATION...BMG
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