101
AGUS76 KRSA 022046
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
1245 PM PST MON FEB 2 2026
..DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
...TROUGHING AT THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BRING LIGHT SCATTERED
SHOWERS, POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATE THIS WEEKEND...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON PM - SUN AM)
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST
COAST STEERING ANY MOISTURE WELL AWAY FROM CA. FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING
SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO PUSH IT FURTHER INLAND LATE THIS WEEK. DET MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE NATURE AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT DO
AGREE ON LITTLE TO NO GENERATION OF PRECIP. KEPT THE LIGHT LESS THAN
0.10" OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOR FRIDAY THAT WAS THERE THIS
MORNING, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. A LARGER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND IS STILL PROGGED TO SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE PACNW AND NRN CA. THE GFS IS BEHIND THE ECMWF TIMING
WISE IN THE 12Z RUN AS IT WAS THIS MORNING KEEPING ALL BUT A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF IS ROUGHLY 12 HOURS QUICKER BRINGING SHOWERS INTO THE
SMITH BASIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING A LITTLE INLAND AND
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT
BUT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS OVER NW CA INTO SUNDAY.
WENT AGAIN WITH A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NBM. THIS
LEAVES ABOUT 0.10-0.30" OVER THE NORTH COAST AND LESS THAN 0.10"
GENERALLY ELSEWHERE ACROSS NW CA INTO SHASTA. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY
WITH FREEZING LEVELS DUE TO PATTERN DIFFERENCES, BUT FOR NOW 8-10.5
KFT OR SO REGION WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
AS
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