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AGUS76 KRSA 031520
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
720 AM PST TUE FEB 3 2026
..DRY AND WARM THROUGH THURSDAY
..WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS VERY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY
..WEEKEND SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN AND LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE AM - MON AM)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RESIDE ALONG THE WEST
COAST...EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH ALONG THE BC AND ALBERTA BORDER.
AT THE SAME TIME...A BROAD UPR TROF EXISTS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
PACIFIC CENTERED NEAR AN UPR LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 50N/160W. LOOK
FOR THIS PATTERN TO STAY RELATIVELY SIMILAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
AT ANYWHERE FROM PLUS 5- TO PLUS 25-DEGF OVER AVERAGES. THIS
INCLUDES AT 8000-FEET WHERE HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 50-DEGF...AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING
MARK. DEFINITELY FEELING A LITTLE MORE SPRING-LIKE FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BROAD
UPR TROF OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL STRETCH AND EVENTUALLY
SPLIT AS IT BEGINS TO RIDE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHERN PIECE IS EXPECTED TO FORM A WEAK CUTOFF LOW AND THEN
MEANDER JUST OFF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA COAST ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE CROSSING NORTHERN BAJA LATER SATURDAY AND FINALLY
INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
SHOWING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO GENERATE SOME RATHER
SCATTERED AND LIGHT PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA/SOUTHERN NV. OVERALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN 0.10-INCH WHERE SHOWERS DEVELOP.
THEN FOR THE WEEKEND BACK TO THE NORTH...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST TRIES ITS BEST TO HANG ON STRONG...WHILE A S/WV
TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
A MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TO THE OREGON COAST. THE TREND OF THE MODELS OVER THE PAST DAY HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIP TO THE NORTH COAST. FOR
SATURDAY...NOW LOOK FOR THE DAY TO REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO
THE SMITH RIVER BASIN AFTER SUNSET. INTO SUNDAY...MODELS KEEP MUCH
OF THE PRECIP ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS DOWN TO ABOUT POINT
ARENA...AND THEN INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN
SIERRA DOWN TO ABOUT THE YUBA/AMERICAN RIVER BASINS. BEST TOTALS
WILL BE FROM THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER BASIN TO THE SMITH RIVER BASIN
WITH 0.50- TO 1.00-INCH.
THIS SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BECOMING A BIT
MORE ELONGATED. BUT NOW...MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT THAT THE UPR
RIDGE MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. WILL SEE IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THIS
DIRECTION...WHICH WOULD POINT TO A HIGHER CHANCE OF DRY OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS CA AND NV.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
DRK
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