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AGUS76 KRSA 032041
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
1240 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2026
..DRY AND WARM THROUGH THURSDAY
..WEAK SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERN SIERRA SCATTERED SHOWERS FRI/SAT
..SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE PM - MON AM)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN US THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED
PRETTY MUCH OVER NORTHERN CA. OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC IS A
BROAD UPR TROF WITH A DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS
FEATURE TO THE NORTH OF HAWAII. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON
ANOMALIES PEAKING EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY FROM PLUS 5- TO PLUS
25-DEGF. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST...STRETCH AND SPLIT...SENDING THE SOUTHERN PIECE
TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST. LOOK FOR THIS UPR LOW TO THEN
MEANDER TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST ON FRIDAY AND
REACHING NORTHERN BAJA LATE SATURDAY. WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING...THIS MAY GENERATE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE
FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR LESS
THAN 0.10-INCH.
THEN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH
AS THE UPR RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST TRIES TO HOLD ON AS LONG AS IT CAN
BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARRIVE
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY...AND THEN NORTHERN CA
COAST ON SUNDAY. STILL NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIP FOR ACROSS OUR
LATITUDES. THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PRECIP WILL SPREAD ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS DOWN TO THE RUSSIAN RIVER BASIN...INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES/NORTHERN SIERRA DOWN TO THE AMERICAN RIVER BASIN...AND FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY. BEST
TOTALS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER KLAMATH RIVER BASIN AND SMITH RIVER
BASIN WITH 0.50- TO 1.00-INCH (LOCAL 1.50-INCHES DEL NORTE COUNTY)
AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST.
THE CPC 6-TO-10 AND 8-TO-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO BE PROMISING IN
TERMS OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH BOTH SHOWING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP...ESPECIALLY THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST LOCATIONS OF
SOUTHERN CA...SOUTHERN NV...SOUTHERN UT... AND MUCH OF AZ.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
DRK
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