450
NGUS86 KRSA 052053
HCMRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
1255 PM PST THU FEB 5 2026
..SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS INTO FRIDAY
..NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
..POSSIBLY REMAINING UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (THU PM - WED AM)
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY GETTING NUDGED DOWNSTREAM
A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONE MORE DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IS UNDERWAY ACROSS CA AND NV. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA (30N/120W) AND A STRETCHING/SPLITTING
S/WV TROF BETWEEN 130W AND 140W WILL PHASE TO FORM A DISTURBANCE OFF
THE CENTRAL CA COAST BEFORE IT DRIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL BAJA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION IS
EXPECTED TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN NV. BEST COVERAGE
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM 0.10-
TO 0.25-INCH. ELSEWHERE...TOTALS WILL BE BELOW 0.10-INCH.
AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA...ATTENTION
TURNS TO A MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO INITIALLY ADVECT FROM NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTERSECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN BC BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND REACHING FAR NORTHERN CA LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK S/WV TROF MOVING THROUGH THE ONSHORE
FLOW...THE MOISTURE CONVERGING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING NORTHERN CA ITS FIRST WIDESPREAD PRECIP FOR THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY. BEST TOTALS STILL LOOK TO FALL OVER COASTAL AREAS OF THE
LOWER KLAMATH RIVER BASIN AND SMITH RIVER BASIN...BETWEEN 0.50- AND
1.50-INCHES (BEST ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY). AMOUNTS TAPER OFF INLAND
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP REACHING DOWN TO THE
YUBA/AMERICAN RIVER BASINS IN CA AND AROUND I-80 IN NV. FREEZING
LEVELS STARTING THE EVENT WILL BE 9000- TO 11000-FEET NORTH OF I-80
AND END UP DOWN TO 5000- TO 8000-FEET TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE
PRECIP.
AFTER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED...BUT THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS. THE 05/12Z QPF CLUSTERS PROVIDED BY
WPC SHOWS THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE 48-HOUR PERIOD ENDING
THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12 AT 12Z. THE MAJORITY (59%) SHOW A QUIETER
REGIME WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT TWO CLUSTERS (20% AND 20%
RESPECTIVELY) SHOW A SCENARIO WITH MODERATE PRECIP ACROSS EITHER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA...OR NORTHERN CA. THE OVERALL TOTAL LEADS TO A
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE PRECIP EVENT ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CA AND INLAND OVER THE LENGTH OF THE SIERRA AS
WELL AS NORTHEAST NV. THIS ALL ENCOMPASSING MULTI-MODEL BLEND IS A
GOOD WAY TO GO...AND THE LATEST DAY 6 FORECAST REPRESENTS THIS
THINKING.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
*********************** CONTACT INFORMATION ************************
CNRFC OFFICE HOURS PHONE: 1 (916) 979-3056 EXTENSION 338
AFTER-HOURS CALLING SERVICE: 1 (800) 218-0858
LEAVE NAME...OFFICE...AND PHONE NUMBER
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