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AGUS76 KRSA 231515
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
715 AM PST MON FEB 23 2026
...LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NW CA THIS MORNING, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
LATER TODAY INTO WEDS AS A WARMER SYSTEM ARRIVES...
...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS/FRI BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS
LIGHT SHOWERS TO NRN CA SAT...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON AM - SUN AM)
LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NW CA THIS MORNING AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PACNW. A RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING IN OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN CA AS WELL. THE RIDGE IN COMBINATION
WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW STRETCHED FROM OFFSHORE OF
BC OUT TO THE PACIFIC HAVE FUNNELED A STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARDS NRN CA. TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MOISTURE STILL
OFFSHORE WITH A CORE OF AROUND 1.50" PW. MORNING 12Z SOUNDING AT
KOAK REPORTED PW OF 0.66". MODELS HAVE THE MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE NRN CA COAST. AT THIS
TIME, EXPECT PRECIP TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY AROUND THE NORTH COAST
SPREADING INLAND ACROSS NRN CA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WHILE LIGHTER
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HREF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
OVERNIGHT HAVE A 20-70% CHANCE OF 0.50"/HR RAIN RATES ALONG THE NRN
CA COAST INTO SHASTA AND A 10% CHANCE OF 1"/HR RATES AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO. TUESDAY, MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY AREA ALONG WITH
MORE MODERATE SHOWERS. PROBABILITIES CONFINE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE FOR TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL
NARROW THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH FURTHER NORTHWARD. EXPECT PRECIP TO DIMINISH AWAY FROM THE
SIERRA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. LIGHTER
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO LINGERING
MOISTURE, BUT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS THAT RIDGE GAINS
STRENGTH. THE LAST OF THE TERRAIN ENHANCED PRECIP IS FORECAST TO END
BY THE EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
AS WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THIS WILL BE A WARMER
SYSTEM DUE TO THE ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE RESULTING IN HIGHER
FREEZING LEVELS THAN IN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. LEVELS ARE FORECAST AT 9.5-
13 KFT FROM N TO S ACROSS THE SIERRA FOR THIS EVENT. QPF WAS A BLEND
OF WPC GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST NBM ALONG WITH SOME OF THE HRRR IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QPF THROUGH 12Z THURS: 1.50-4" NORTH COAST (4-
7.50" SMITH BASIN, UP TO 8.50" KING RANGE), 1.50-4.50" CENTRAL/NRN
SIERRA, 0.25-1.50" SOUTHERN SIERRA, 2.50-5" SHASTA, 1.50-5.50"
RUSSIAN/EEL, 0.50-1.50" MOST OF THE BAY AREA, 0.10-0.75" CENTRAL
COAST (1" OR SO SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS), 0.30-1" SAC VALLEY, AND A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO 0.30" SJ VALLEY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL COME SATURDAY AS A LOW CUTS INTO THE
RIDGE FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM WEAKENING A GOOD BIT
BEFORE REACHING THE COAST, AND WITH THE RIDGE STILL LARGELY IN PLACE
WILL LIMIT PRECIP TO FAR NRN CA. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF THIS WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.10-0.50" FOR THE
NORTH COAST, CA/OR BORDER, AND SHASTA DIMINISHING QUICKLY TO 0.10-
0.25" ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL SIERRA.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
AS
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