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AGUS76 KRSA 232114
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
115 PM PST MON FEB 23 2026
...MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA LATER TODAY INTO WEDS
AS A WARMER SYSTEM ARRIVES...
...DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURS/FRI BEFORE A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS
LIGHT SHOWERS TO NRN CA SAT...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON PM - SUN AM)
ANOTHER 0.10-0.50" HAS FALLEN OVER THE SMITH BASIN SINCE THIS
MORNING AND UP TO 0.30" OVER SHASTA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SCATTERED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NRN CA AHEAD OF A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. A
PAIR OF CIRCULATIONS RESIDES WITHIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHED SW
TO NE OFFSHORE OF BC THAT ALONG WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
IS FACILITATING THE TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE PACNW
AND NRN CA. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
LATER TODAY ALONG WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NRN CA
COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY
MORNING. EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES REMAIN SIMILAR TO EARLIER RUNS
SUGGESTING 0.50+"/HR RAINFALL RATES ALONG THE COAST WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL 1+"/HR RATES NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THAT MOISTURE PLUME NARROWS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH MAINLY DUE TO
TERRAIN DRIVEN EFFECTS OVER THE SIERRA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY BEFORE MODELS BRING IN
ANOTHER LOW FROM OUT WEST GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER NRN CA ON
SATURDAY.
QPF HAS GONE UP SINCE THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA AND OTHER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS ACROSS NRN CA AS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DIAL IN.
INCREASES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.75" THOUGH
EXCEED AN INCH FOR SOME PARTS OF THE SIERRA. MAINLY USED THE LATEST
WPC GUIDANCE WITH A LITTLE OF THE 18Z HRRR OR WEST WRF BLENDED IN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. QPF THROUGH 12Z THURS: 1.50-4.50" NORTH
COAST (4-8.50" SMITH BASIN, UP TO 9" KING RANGE), 2-7" CENTRAL/NRN
SIERRA, 0.50-2.50" SOUTHERN SIERRA, 2.50-5.50" SHASTA, 1.50-6"
RUSSIAN/EEL, 0.50-1.50" MOST OF THE BAY AREA (UP TO 3.50" NORTH
BAY), 0.10-0.75" CENTRAL COAST (1" OR SO SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS), 0.30-
1.50" SAC VALLEY, AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO 0.50" SJ VALLEY. FREEZING
LEVELS ACROSS THE SIERRA STILL LOOK LIKE 9-13 KFT FROM N TO S
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
AS
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