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AGUS76 KRSA 241553
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
830 AM PST TUE FEB 24 2026
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CURRENTLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
...DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE AM - MON AM)
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AS A PULSE OF MODERATE-TO-
STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER CONDITIONS EXTENDS INLAND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WITH ITS DIRECT TROPICAL TAP IS
FUNNELING PWAT VALUES >1.5 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, INDICATED VIA TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS HAVE THIS
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BRINGING IVT MAGNITUDES >750 UNITS AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE RUSSIAN RIVER WATERSHED AND BAY AREA BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH
REMNANT AR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z 26 FEBRUARY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN A STRETCH OF DRY DAYS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE EVENT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR WHERE AR CONDITIONS ARE STRONGEST, CONFINED
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. POCKETS OF >3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE NORTH COAST FROM THE NORTHERN RUSSIAN TO THE SMITH
BASIN, SHASTA DRAINAGE, AND ALONG THE SIERRA CREST DOWN TO THE
AMERICAN BASIN. 1+ INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR OTHER LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE COAST RANGE, SOUTHERN CASCADES, AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS
WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY.
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER AND ITS DIRECT TROPICAL TAP, FREEZING
LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE EVENT,
HOVERING AROUND 9.5K FEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND 13K FEET ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A FRONT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ONSHORE. CURRENT PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE
RELATIVELY MODEST WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
CH
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