932
AGUS76 KRSA 142023
HMDRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
120 PM PDT TUE APR 14 2026
..LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY OVER NRN CA WITH PASSING FRONT
...POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION LATE WEEKEND WITH SYSTEM OUT OF
GULF OF ALASKA...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE PM - MON AM)
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. AN
UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACNW FROM BC ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO NRN CA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS IN ON THURSDAY.
QPF FOR THE WEDS/THURS SYSTEM: 0.25-1" NORTH COAST (UP TO 1.50"
SMITH BASIN), 0.75-1.75" SRN OR CASCADES, AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
0.50" FOR MOST OF THE REST OF NRN CA. THE LARGER WEEKEND SYSTEM
STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE
REGION, HOWEVER MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAIN A
MAJOR SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE 12Z DET GFS HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM
DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM INITIALLY BRINGING IN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING
TO MEANDERING OFFSHORE UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
EARLIER SIDE WANTING TO BRING SHOWERS IN BY SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE
TAKING THE LOW INLAND ACROSS CA SUNDAY/MONDAY. ARRIVAL TIMES VARY BY
A COUPLE DAYS AMONG THE ENSEMBLES AS WELL. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM. 12Z ENSEMBLE QPF
CLUSTERS SHOW JUST UNDER 70% OF OVERALL MEMBERS KEEPING SHOWERS
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE NRN CA COAST BEFORE SUNDAY, BUT BEYOND
THAT THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY.
FORECAST WENT DOWN QUITE A BIT BY NEARLY 0.50" + DUE TO THIS SLOWER
TIMING. MANUALLY SLOWED THINGS DOWN A BIT FURTHER COMPARED TO THE
NBM/WPC AS THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT FAST COMPARED TO THE OTHER
DET MODELS AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES. RIGHT NOW HAVE 0.50-1" FOR THE
NRN CA COAST NORTH OF SONOMA COUNTY TAPERING OFF TO 0.10-0.25"
AROUND SHASTA DOWN TO ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AROUND THE MONTEREY
PENINSULA.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
AS
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