591
NGUS86 KRSA 161441
HCMRSA
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL COORDINATION MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
740 AM PDT THU APR 16 2026
...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NV TODAY BEFORE BRIEF DRYING INTO THE
WEEKEND...
...LARGER UPPER LOW TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (THU AM - WED AM)
YESTERDAY'S FRONT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA
PRODUCING THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AT 0.30" TO JUST
UNDER 1" OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD CUT OFF PRECIP FOR CA TODAY WHILE SHOWERS LINGER OVER
NRN NV AS THE PARENT TROUGH DESCENDS FURTHER INTO THE PACNW DIGGING
INTO NRN NV. SHOWERS SHOULD WRAP UP TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN KEEPING THINGS DRY
AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF CA BACK UP NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MANY AREAS.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE NEXT UPPER LOW
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SOMETIME EITHER LATE THIS WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL TREND OF SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE LOW PERSISTS WITH THE DET ECMWF AND CMC GRADUALLY MOVING CLOSER
TO THE GFS WHICH REMAINS INSISTENT ON A TUESDAY ARRIVAL. THE DET
ECMWF IS NOW MOVING SHOWERS INTO THE NRN CA COAST ON MONDAY RATHER
THAN SUNDAY BEFORE CARRYING THE LOW INLAND ON TUESDAY. THE GFS HAS
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SCRAPING THE COAST AS THE LOW ROTATES OFFSHORE,
BUT DOES NOT REALLY BRING SHOWERS IN UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING MONDAY, BUT
OVERALL MEMBERS OF ALL ENSEMBLES SHOW A RANGE OF ARRIVALS BETWEEN
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. LOOKING AT THE QPF CLUSTERS, 34% OF MEMBERS SHOW
SHOWERS ONLY REACHING THE IMMEDIATE NORTH COAST BY 00Z MONDAY THOUGH
THE OTHERS DON'T CARRY MUCH PAST I-5. THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING
BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CAUSING SOME OVER SPREADING ON
MONDAY COMPARED TO WHERE THE DET RUNS ARE. FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, LEANED CLOSER TO THE TIMING OF THE DET ECMWF BUT PULLED
THINGS BACK JUST A LITTLE TO FURTHER SLOW IT DOWN. THIS BRINGS LESS
THAN 0.10" INTO THE NORTH COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON SPREADING FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING
PRECIP INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
GIVEN THE CONTINUED WIDE ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND DET MODEL DIFFERENCES.
WILL SEE TOMORROW IF THE SLOWING TREND PERSISTS.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, LESS THAN 0.10" GENERALLY ACROSS NV IS
EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE NE MOUNTAINS. FOR 12Z
SUN-12Z WEDS: 1-2" ALONG THE COAST/SF/NBAY FROM SANTA CRUZ TO THE
SMITH BASIN AND INTO SHASTA, 0.50-1.50" ACROSS THE SIERRA, AND 0.10-
0.75" FOR THE REST OF NRN/CNTRL CA.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL RISE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TOMORROW AS THE
RIDGE MOVES IN UP TO 8-11 KFT FROM THE NV BORDER TO THE COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SIERRA MOST AREAS ABOVE 9-11.5 KFT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY GRADUALLY LOWERING NW TO SE AS THAT LOW ARRIVES.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FREEZING LEVELS AS WELL GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN
ARRIVAL TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF.
PLEASE NOTE: THIS PRODUCT MAY NOT BE ROUTINELY UPDATED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE CNRFC
WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/DAILY-BRIEFING FOR A GRAPHICAL SUMMARY OF
WEATHER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
QPF GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE AT WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/QPF.PHP
*********************** CONTACT INFORMATION ************************
CNRFC OFFICE HOURS PHONE: 1 (916) 979-3056 EXTENSION 338
AFTER-HOURS CALLING SERVICE: 1 (800) 218-0858
LEAVE NAME...OFFICE...AND PHONE NUMBER
AS
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