670
FXUS66 KSEW 192324
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
324 PM PST THU DEC 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, PAIRED WITH
BREEZY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
IMPACTFUL WEATHER DURING THE HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WE'RE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH 6 FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING INLAND OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IMPACTING WESTERN WA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE PASSES AND CASCADE GAPS BUT HIGH WIND IS
NOT EXPECTED. LOWLAND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S EACH DAY. MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE.
33
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STORM AFTER STORM CONTINUES
TO TRACK THROUGH WESTERN WA MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK - KEEPING THE
PATTERN ACTIVE. E/SE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST
ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND (GUSTS OVER 50 MPH) REMAINS
LOW. LOWLAND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT. THE AIR MASS
DOES GET COOLER BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING DOWN
TO AROUND 3,000 FT. WE MAY SEE TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH SNOW IN THE
CASCADE PASSES, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. 33
AVIATION
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONSHORE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WITH A SPREAD OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS OVER AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING. A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE KEEPS MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY. S/SE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS HEADING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL START TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINAL AROUND 00Z-04Z, FOR POTENTIALLY SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR LOOKS TO RETURN LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A E/SE COMPONENT RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 KNOTS.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A SURFACE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. A GALE WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS WHILE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
INNER COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SOUTHERLIES WILL ALSO PICK UP
THIS EVENING IN THE EAST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA,
ADMIRALTY INLET, AND THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO TRACK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH GALES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
COMBINED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON 9 TO 12 FEET. SEAS WILL THEN BUILD
UPWARDS TO 15 TO 20 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
KEEPS SEAS ELEVATED.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TONIGHT, WITH THE
SKOKOMISH RIVER REMAINING THE ONLY RIVER IN FLOOD STAGE. THE
CHEHALIS RIVER AT PORTER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE TONIGHT AND
START TO RECEDE.
ADDITIONAL INCOMING PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR RISES ON AREA RIVERS EXPECTED. THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE, BUT REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF FLOOD
STAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE THREAT OF RIVER FLOODING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON WILL INCREASE AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLES
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO RETURN. WHILE
DISCREPANCIES REMAIN, THIS WHICH MAY CAUSE ELEVATED RIVER FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDE CONCERNS THAT MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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