125
FXUS66 KSEW 071727
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
927 AM PST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE
RIDGE WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA TO BRUSH THE NORTHWEST TIER
OF WASHINGTON OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWLAND RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON
AND MILD CONDITIONS. SEE BELOW FOR THE REST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND A RECENT UPDATE TO THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE PAC NW WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER ON TAP
TODAY. THE RIDGE IS DIRTY, THOUGH, AND WE'LL SEE A MIX OF MORNING
LOW STRATUS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE, LEADING TO CLOUDIER
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S THIS AFTERNOON OR CLOSE
TO NORMAL.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST AND INLAND ON SATURDAY, STILL
KEEPING PARTS OF THE AREA DRY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COAST, OLYMPIC
PENINSULA AND NORTHERN PARTS AS A PRECIP BAND CLIPS THE AREA. THE
AIR MASS WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGH IN THE INTERIOR REACHING THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
AND EVERETT NORTHWARD WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH.
THE FRONTAL BAND STALLS AND PIVOTS A BIT ON SUNDAY (MORE NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTATED), THEN SHIFTS INLAND. ALL TOLD, SUNDAY IS NOW
TRENDING WETTER AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AND INLAND.
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST
AND NORTH PART. UP IN THE MOUNTAINS, PRECIP IS HEAVY AT TIMES IN
THE NORTH CASCADES WHERE SNOW LEVELS HOVER AROUND 3500-4000 FT
WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LOWER IN THE
CENTRAL CASCADES BUT WE COULD STILL SEE 1-4" AT STEVENS AND
SNOQUALMIE PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT (AS SNOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO DROP).
33
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH WE'LL STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THE AIR
MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER, THOUGH, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S. SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH.
A STRONGER PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
POTENTIAL WINDY CONDITIONS, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MOSTLY KEEP STRONGEST WINDS TO OUR SOUTH
AND/OR OFFSHORE BUT STILL BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY. 33
AVIATION
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TODAY AS A
RIDGE TRACKS OVERHEAD. MVFR/IFR STRATUS THIS MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING IN THE AFTERNOON (20-22Z). MORE LOW CLOUDS LIKELY
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FRONT DRAWING
NEAR W WA. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BETWEEN
5-10 KT.
KSEA...MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING
TOWARDS 19-20Z. VFR EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT. LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM LOW AT THIS TIME.
MCMILLIAN/MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
1022MB SURFACE HIGH LEADING TO CALM CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, SCA SOUTHERLIES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN INLAND, EAST STRAIT,
AND ADMIRALTY WILL FOLLOW SUIT BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS LOOK
TO PERSIST BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO SUNDAY. ALONG WITH WINDS, SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-14 FT FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AND REMAINING
ELEVATED BEFORE SUBSIDING BRIEFLY INTO MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS
TRENDING ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEVELOPING
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND
MIDWEEK. HERE, STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE FAVORED TO RETURN.
MCMILLIAN
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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