241
FXUS66 KSEW 072137
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
137 PM PST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SHIFT TO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED TO KICK OFF OVER THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT EAST, BRINGING THE
STORM TRACK DOWN INTO THE AREA. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN,
MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE FORECAST AT TIMES TO
WESTERN WASHINGTON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
LINGERING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE GIVING WAY TO MORE BLUE SKY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S WILL PERSIST INTO THE REST OF THE DAY
FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA TOMORROW WILL INTRODUCE RAIN AND SOME BREEZY WINDS TO THE
NORTH COAST TOMORROW MORNING AND FILL IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS. THE NORTH CASCADES, NAMELY THE MOUNT BAKER
AREA WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE PASS LEVEL IN THE REST OF THE
CASCADES FOR MINIMAL TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS THE
PRECIPITATION GETS INTO PUGET SOUND, EXPECT BREEZY WINDS IN AREAS
NORTH OF EVERETT AND A GENERALLY MILD AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S.
THE QPF FOR SUNDAY INCREASED, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH CASCADES
AND OLYMPIC PENINSULA. SNOW LEVELS ALSO COME DOWN TO 3000 FEET OR
LOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL CASCADES, WHICH COULD MAKE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL
IN THESE AREAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TOWARD MOUNT BAKER
AND THE NORTH CASCADES. MONDAY WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN OVERALL DECREASING PRECIPITATION
TREND, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL ARRIVE THEREAFTER.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH WILL DECAY OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOR CLOUDY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS.
A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK BUT THE RANGE OF IMPACTS ARE LARGE BECAUSE THE RANGE OF
POSSIBLE TRACKS ARE LARGE AS WELL. WHAT WE CAN SEE AT THIS POINT
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BE A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BUT
WHERE IT ULTIMATELY TRACKS WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THAT IT WOULD BRING, AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
AND TEMPERATURE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL. UPON EARLIER
EXAMINATION OF THE SYSTEM, THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE WIND GUST SPEEDS
BETWEEN THE MEAN AND EVEN 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES WAS CONSIDERABLE.
MORE DETAILS WILL BE ASCERTAINED AS THE SYSTEM AND TIMELINE NEARS.
21
AVIATION
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING SOMEWHAT NORTHWESTERLY AS AN
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO NUDGE
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON, THE EXCEPTION OF KPAE AND KPWT WHERE LINGERING
MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT UNTIL 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL MAINLY IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA,
AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF THE COAST. WITH HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT, NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, WITH A 15-20% CHANCE
OF SEEING MVFR IN LOWER PRONE LOCATIONS IN THE INTERIOR.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A 15% OF LOW MVFR CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 09Z-14Z.
WITH HIGH CLOUDS AROUND, THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. S/SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON 8 TO 12 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A SURFACE HIGH OFFSHORE WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY A
WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES, ALONG WITH THE EAST ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT, THE
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS, AND ADMIRALTY INLET. THESE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO SUNDAY.
ACTIVE WATER LOOKS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MIDWEEK, WHERE A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
COMBINED SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET WILL START TO
INCREASE TO AROUND TO 10 TO 14 FEET TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, REMAINING ABOVE 10 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN MIDWEEK WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MAZURKIEWICZ
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM PST SATURDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST
SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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