784
FXUS66 KSEW 091055
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
355 AM PDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE AREA
TODAY THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER TUESDAY. COOL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ANOTHER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
WEAKENING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING 130W EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
THE RIVER THIS FAR NORTH ONLY FORKS REPORTING RAIN AT 3 AM/10Z
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM SEATTLE SOUTHWARD.
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES WITH THE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING THE SOUTH PUGET SOUND AND THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S WHILE CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR 50
IN WHATCOM COUNTY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH NEAR 135W PREVENTING MUCH
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIVER AND COLD FRONT. TROUGH SHIFTING
EAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON PUSHING WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BACK DOWN OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH
RAIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDY
CONDITIONS AROUND THE EASTERN ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ON
WHIDBEY ISLAND AND NEAR ADMIRALTY INLET. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS LOCATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE CASCADES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE
STEADY PRECIPITATION. POST FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING
QUICKLY OVER SNOHOMISH AND NORTHERN KING COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 3500 FEET. UP TO A FOOT OF NEW SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CASCADES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED
AROUND MOUNT BAKER AND IN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AROUND STEVENS
PASS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND THE MOUNTAINS POST
FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY PRETTY MINIMAL. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE HOOD
CANAL AND IN THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.
NOT MUCH GOING ON MONDAY. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLOUDY. AIR MASS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH THE COOL AIR MASS OVERHEAD
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL, NEAR 50.
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE NORTH COAST MONDAY NIGHT
BUT ONCE AGAIN A COLD TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG 140W WILL STOP
THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT LEAVING IT WEST OF THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 WITH HIGHS NEAR 50.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY
MOVING INLAND THURSDAY KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. SNOW
LEVELS TRICKLING DOWN REACHING AROUND 1500 FEET THURSDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY RUNNING INTO SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH THE JET AIMED AT
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AND WEAKEN IT AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FELTON
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A STALLED FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST,
MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER TO MVFR AFTER THE RAIN ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
PEAKING AROUND 18Z, AT AROUND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 35 KT. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH INTERIOR (INCLUDING KBLI).
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WEST/SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL REACH THE TERMINAL AROUND 20Z WITH
CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR AFTER (AROUND 00Z TO 03Z MONDAY) AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS SHOWERS TAPER
OFF. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 KT OR LESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY 12-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 18Z SUNDAY - 00Z MONDAY.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT,
BECOMING LIGHT GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
62
MARINE
A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE THROUGH A FEW GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BREEZY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS, THE EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA, AND
ADMIRALTY INLET, WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. PUGET SOUND
WILL SEE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
SWITCH TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SUBSTANTIAL PUSH OF
WESTERLIES DOWN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA LOOKS
TO FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
STALL JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY WINDS AND
ELEVATED SEAS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK.
SEAS 10 TO 13 FT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO AROUND 8 FT TOMORROW.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO RAISE SEAS BACK TO
AROUND 10 TO 13 FT AND REMAINING AROUND OR ABOVE 10 FT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
62
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER COULD RISE INTO ACTION STAGE TONIGHT. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADMIRALTY INLET
AREA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR WEST SLOPES NORTH CASCADES AND PASSES-WEST
SLOPES NORTH CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT
10 NM-GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PUGET
SOUND AND HOOD CANAL-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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