628
FXUS66 KSEW 102209
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
309 PM PDT MON MAR 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
FOR SOME AREAS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW TODAY DID MUCH TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES OVER THE AREA PERHAPS AIDED A BIT BY AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALREADY SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE NORTH
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS THE ODD LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING
IT INTO THE INTERIOR - MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF PUGET SOUND -
LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STALLED ROUGHLY IN
THIS POSITION UNTIL WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING - BEFORE SHIFTING
EASTWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. WITH SOME
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OVER THE CASCADES LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IN ADDITION, BREEZY AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE A GOOD BET ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 1500-2000 BY
THURSDAY MORNING, WELL BELOW PASS LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND
LOW ENOUGH THAT A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CASCADE
FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INLAND
THURSDAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS
WILL KICK OFF THE DAY FRIDAY SNOW LEVELS AROUND OR JUST A LITTLE
BELOW 1000 FEET - COUPLED WITH ONGOING SHOWERS SUPPORTED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW IN THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS BEFORE THE AIR MASS WARMS A TOUCH WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING TO NEAR 2000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE SYSTEM SHOE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
EXPECT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING AND MAINLY HOVERING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OVERHEAD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL
ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE AREA. A FEW TERMINALS
COULD SEE CEILINGS LOWER TOWARDS MVFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE MANY INTERIOR TERMINALS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD. A MORE WIDESPREAD LOWERING OF AREA
CEILINGS IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 3-7 KT
THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TOWARDS 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
KSEA...CONDITIONS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR AT THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUE TO LIFT TOWARDS
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM
IN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TOWARDS MVFR AND
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
BETWEEN 20-23Z. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST AT
3-7 KTS.
MARINE
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SMALL AREA OF SMALL CRAFT
WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG THE
COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH
AND TRACKS TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. GUSTS TO GALE AND HIGH-END SMALL CRAFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WATERS NORTH OF
PUGET SOUND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWING ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 34 KT.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA WATERS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WINDS
AND SEAS TO REMAIN ELEVATED.
SEAS PERSIST AT 8 TO 10 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BUILD BACK
TOWARDS 10 TO 13 FT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SEAS THEN LOOK
TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 12 FT THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING
TOWARDS 10 FT AGAIN. HIGHER SEAS, BUILDING TO 15 FT OR GREATER,
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
NO RIVER FLOODING IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SKOKOMISH
RIVER IS IN THE LOWER END OF ACTIONS STAGE THIS MORNING. THE RIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR ACTION STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY
INLET-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM.
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