396
FXUS66 KSEW 111615
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
915 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH WESTERN
WASHINGTON TODAY THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES, INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND COASTAL DRIZZLE.
UPDATE
MARINE STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY NORTH OF SEATTLE THIS
MORNING, RESULTING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN 24 HOURS
AGO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL THIN LATER THIS MORNING, BUT MID TO
HIGH LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CONSIDERABLY COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS. HIGHS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S,
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS
IS MUCH LOWER. THE CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID-70S BUT THAT WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER. IF LITTLE SUN BREAKS THROUGH, TEMPERATURES
COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK 70ISH. -WOLCOTT-
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
STILL ON TRACK TO SHIFT ONSHORE LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IT
STILL LOOKS TO BE LACKING ANYTHING OF SUBSTANCE IN TERMS OF
PRECIP, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MORNING DRIZZLE NEAR THE
COAST. FRIDAY LOOKS SIMILAR AS UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SOME MODEST HEIGHT INCREASES OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, BUT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT. THIS
SHOULD GIVE INTERIOR AREAS A SLIGHT WARMING TREND AND LESS
MORNING STRATUS WHILE COASTAL AREAS PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH OF
BENEFIT. THE FORECAST PICTURE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT MURKY AS WE
MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE
EURO SUITE FAVORING LOWERING HEIGHTS AND BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP
WHILE A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND
DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS. CURRENT FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
REFLECT THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE FORECASTS WHICH BASICALLY TAKE THE
MIDDLE GROUND WITH LOW END SHOWER CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES A
SMIDGE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION BELOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY. LOW
STRATUS IS SLOWLY LIFTING THROUGH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THIS
MORNING, MAINTAINING MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MOST TERMINALS.
EXPECT THIS LAYER TO LIFT AND SCATTER TOWARD 18Z, WITH ADDITIONAL
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING BRING MVFR CEILINGS
BACK INTO THE COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 04Z AND INTO THE PUGET SOUND
TERMINALS AROUND 09Z THROUGH THE MORNING THURSDAY.
KSEA...LINGERING STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING TOWARD
18Z, WITH VARIABLE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KT TODAY. STRATUS LIKELY RETURNS AROUND 09Z
SATURDAY BUT ARRIVES A LITTLE HIGHER WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED IN THE
010-015 RANGE.
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH LOWER
PRESSURE INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA
MONDAY.
DIURNAL WESTERLY PUSHES THROUGH STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ARE
EXPECTED EACH EVENING, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WESTERLIES IN THE EVENING THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS DUE TO SEAS
REMAINING GENERALLY 8 TO 10 FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS REMAINING
8 TO 10 SECONDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY WILL EASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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