315  
FXUS66 KSEW 071038  
AFDSEW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA  
338 AM PDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A  
BRIEF COOL DOWN AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LEADING TO  
A RETURN OF WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
A WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR  
WESTERN WASHINGTON AS AN UPPER-RIDGE TRAVERSES OVERHEAD.  
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (AFTER MORNING  
STRATUS RETREATS) AND INCREASE MAX TEMPS 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S  
THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS NEAR 90 F. COASTAL  
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER WITH VALUES IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 F WITH THE WARMEST  
TEMPS FELT IN THE SEATTLE METRO.  
 
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES ON TUESDAY BUT AN  
ADDITIONAL WARM DAY IS IN STORE. A MODERATE (ORANGE) THREAT FOR  
HEATRISK MUST BE EXPRESSED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SEATTLE AREA AS THE  
PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT COOLING ISN'T EXPECTED TO BE ROBUST. THIS  
LEVEL MAINLY AFFECTS THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE  
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION. THE REST OF W WA WILL SEE A  
MINOR (YELLOW) THREAT. A REPRIEVE IS ON THE WAY HOWEVER AS A  
TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES  
WILL COOL SUBSTANTIALLY AS LIGHT SHOWERS RETURN TO THE AREA. THE  
COAST AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE CASCADES WILL SEE THE BEST  
PROBABILITY FOR THE PRECIPITATION. UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE THE  
FEATURES HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
WE'LL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF  
THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS. WHILE SOME  
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, THE  
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES  
IN THE 70S FOR INTERIOR AREAS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO  
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO  
CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR  
LOWLANDS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MIGHT BRUSH THE AREA LATE NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
MCMILLIAN  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE  
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS OVER THE  
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS HAS PUSHED INLAND ALONG THE COAST AND INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS  
WAY DOWN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. DO NOT EXPECT FOR STRATUS TO  
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR TERMINALS, HOWEVER.  
CURRENT CONDITIONS RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR FOR TERMINALS IN STRATUS  
TO VFR FOR TERMINALS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT STRATUS TO LIFT  
AND SCATTER BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS FOR A RETURN TO MORE  
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS ARE  
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 4-7 KTS THIS MORNING, BUT WILL  
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS  
IS LIKELY TO MAKE ITS WAY INLAND EARLY TUESDAY.  
 
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS  
OUT OF NORTH BETWEEN 4-7 KTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 8-12  
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN EASE AGAIN BY THIS EVENING.  
 
14  
 
 
   
MARINE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS  
TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE  
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING  
A BRIEF UPTICK IN SEAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WESTERLY PUSHES WILL  
CONTINUE ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL  
EVENINGS. THE PUSH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH  
WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT. THE SUBSEQUENT  
PUSHES LOOK STRONGER AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES NEAR MIDWEEK,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
SEAS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
WEEK AND COULD BECOME STEEP AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY  
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
14  
 
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
AN ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER MUST BE  
EXPRESSED FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN UPPER-RIDGE WILL BRING A  
PERIOD OF WARM, DRY WEATHER AS TEMPERATURES TOP OUT 7-10 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY. MINIMUM RHS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM  
OUT BETWEEN 20-30% FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN CASCADE VALLEYS. HOWEVER,  
STEADY LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW LOOKS TO BRING DECENT RH RECOVERIES  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
A REPRIEVE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT ENTERS THE  
REGION. HERE WE'LL SEE A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND  
AN INCREASE IN POPS AS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERS BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT A DECENT  
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (>0.25") LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE NORTHERN  
SECTIONS OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADE WITH A 30-40% CHANCE.  
LOCALIZED AREAS SUCH AS MT. BAKER ARE AROUND 50%. WARMER AND DRIER  
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
MCMILLIAN  
 
   
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PDT  
TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST  
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.  
 
 
 
 
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