185
FXUS66 KSEW 072306
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
406 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEEK SYSTEM SLIDES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PUSH OF
MARINE AIR, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A SHORT BREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS BACK
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A
NOTABLE WARM UP TO THE INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS OF 3 PM WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S CLOSER TO THE WATER. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ON THE MILD SIDE, ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR
60 WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS REMAINING CLOSER TO THE CITY CENTERS.
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR RUNNING VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY COULD BRING A LITTLE AFTERNOON
COOLING TO THE COASTLINE AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SPOTS.
OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF MINOR (YELLOW) TO MODERATE (ORANGE)
HEATRISK CAN EXPECTED. TURNING TO WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN AS AS STRONG PUSH
OF MARINE AIR CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT
RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS
A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY, BRINGING
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WHILE
THERE'S A SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 25%) THAT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LEAVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF INCREASED HEATRISK AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE, WITH MOST TERMINALS
REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING 8-12 KTS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE PWT
WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS, BLI MORE SOUTHERLY AND HQM FAVORING
WESTERLY. THESE TERMINALS CONTINUE TO SEE SPEEDS AKIN TO THE
REMAINING STATIONS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THANKS TO LINGERING STRATUS.
THESE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT EXTENT IS
EXPECTED BE LIMITED, WITH THE ONLY TERMINAL IMPACTED LIKELY TO BE
HQM. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING TO 4-8 KTS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
18
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A
BRIEF UPTICK IN SEAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WESTERLY PUSHES WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS.
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE PUSH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING SMALL
CRAFT STRENGTH WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT. AS
SUCH, THE INHERITED HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SUBSEQUENT
PUSHES LOOK STRONGER AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES NEAR MIDWEEK,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW CURRENT
HEADLINE PANS OUT BEFORE CONSIDERING FUTURE ONES. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AND COULD BECOME STEEP AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
14/18
FIRE WEATHER
DRY, WARM WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. MINIMUM RHS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 35% THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF SEATTLE AND ALONG THE CASCADE VALLEYS. MINIMUM
RHS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARDS 25 TO 35% TUESDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
FOR KING AND PIERCE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE CASCADE
VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DECENT RH RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS APPROXIMATELY A 50 TO
70% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARDS, WITH LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WARM, DRY WEATHER AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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