894  
FXUS66 KSEW 080250  
AFDSEW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA  
750 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNDER  
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEEK SYSTEM SLIDES  
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PUSH OF  
MARINE AIR, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN.  
HOWEVER, THIS IS A SHORT BREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO  
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS BACK  
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INTERIOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THERE'S A  
NEW WILDFIRE NEAR LAKE CUSHMAN (SW OLYMPICS) WITH SMOKE OVER MASON  
COUNTY ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. 33  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVERHEAD  
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A NOTABLE WARM UP TO THE  
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS  
OF 3 PM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE WATER.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE, ONLY  
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS  
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE CITY CENTERS. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON  
TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR RUNNING VERY  
SIMILAR TO TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY COULD  
BRING A LITTLE AFTERNOON COOLING TO THE COASTLINE AND THE  
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SPOTS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF MINOR  
(YELLOW) TO MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK CAN EXPECTED. TURNING TO  
WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT  
COOLDOWN AS AS STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR CROSSES THE REGION. THIS  
WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR.  
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS  
A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY, BRINGING  
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WHILE  
THERE'S A SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 25%) THAT WOULD  
BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO  
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
LEAVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE ANOTHER POTENTIAL  
PERIOD OF INCREASED HEATRISK AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS  
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE  
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE, WITH MOST TERMINALS  
REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS BUT SPEEDS HAVE EASED FROM EARLIER IN THE  
AFTERNOON, NOW RANGING GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE PWT  
AND OLM WITH MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BLI MORE SOUTHERLY  
AND HQM FAVORING WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS STILL 8-12 KTS.  
 
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THANKS TO LINGERING STRATUS.  
THESE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT EXTENT IS  
EXPECTED BE LIMITED, WITH THE ONLY TERMINAL IMPACTED LIKELY TO BE  
HQM. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.  
 
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
NORTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING TO 4-8 KTS  
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
18  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE COASTAL  
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN  
SEAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WESTERLY PUSHES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE  
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS. MODELS REMAIN  
CONSISTENT THAT THE PUSH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH  
WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT. AS SUCH, THE INHERITED  
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SUBSEQUENT PUSHES LOOK STRONGER  
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES NEAR MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF  
THE FRONT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW CURRENT HEADLINE PANS OUT BEFORE  
CONSIDERING FUTURE ONES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO  
THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
SEAS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK  
AND COULD BECOME STEEP AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER  
THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
14/18  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
DRY, WARM WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED  
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. MINIMUM RHS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 35% THIS  
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF SEATTLE AND ALONG THE CASCADE VALLEYS. MINIMUM  
RHS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARDS 25 TO 35% TUESDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY  
FOR KING AND PIERCE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE CASCADE  
VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DECENT RH RECOVERIES  
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON  
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW, WITH MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS APPROXIMATELY A 50 TO  
70% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY  
NORTHWARDS, WITH LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGING WILL  
THEN BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WARM, DRY WEATHER AND  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JD  
 

 
   
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.  
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS  
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.  
 

 
 

 
 
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