894
FXUS66 KSEW 080250
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
750 PM PDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. A WEEK SYSTEM SLIDES
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A PUSH OF
MARINE AIR, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER, THIS IS A SHORT BREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS BACK
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INTERIOR TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THERE'S A
NEW WILDFIRE NEAR LAKE CUSHMAN (SW OLYMPICS) WITH SMOKE OVER MASON
COUNTY ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. 33
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVERHEAD
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING A NOTABLE WARM UP TO THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AS
OF 3 PM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CLOSER TO THE WATER.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE, ONLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 WITH THE WARMEST SPOTS
REMAINING CLOSER TO THE CITY CENTERS. ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON
TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR RUNNING VERY
SIMILAR TO TODAY. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY COULD
BRING A LITTLE AFTERNOON COOLING TO THE COASTLINE AND THE
IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SPOTS. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DAY OF MINOR
(YELLOW) TO MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK CAN EXPECTED. TURNING TO
WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
COOLDOWN AS AS STRONG PUSH OF MARINE AIR CROSSES THE REGION. THIS
WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND INTO
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS
A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY, BRINGING
ABOUT ANOTHER ROUND OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WHILE
THERE'S A SUBSET OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (AROUND 25%) THAT WOULD
BRING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THROUGH, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LEAVING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GIVE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
PERIOD OF INCREASED HEATRISK AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO DIG INTO THE
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE, WITH MOST TERMINALS
REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS BUT SPEEDS HAVE EASED FROM EARLIER IN THE
AFTERNOON, NOW RANGING GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE PWT
AND OLM WITH MORE EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BLI MORE SOUTHERLY
AND HQM FAVORING WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS STILL 8-12 KTS.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THANKS TO LINGERING STRATUS.
THESE STRATUS WILL LIKELY PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT EXTENT IS
EXPECTED BE LIMITED, WITH THE ONLY TERMINAL IMPACTED LIKELY TO BE
HQM. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING TO 4-8 KTS
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
18
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN
SEAS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WESTERLY PUSHES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT THAT THE PUSH TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH
WIND GUSTS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT. AS SUCH, THE INHERITED
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE SUBSEQUENT PUSHES LOOK STRONGER
AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES NEAR MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW CURRENT HEADLINE PANS OUT BEFORE
CONSIDERING FUTURE ONES. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO
THE AREA WATERS ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST BETWEEN 3-6 FT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
AND COULD BECOME STEEP AT TIMES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS.
14/18
FIRE WEATHER
DRY, WARM WEATHER WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED
ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. MINIMUM RHS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 35% THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF SEATTLE AND ALONG THE CASCADE VALLEYS. MINIMUM
RHS WILL AGAIN DROP TOWARDS 25 TO 35% TUESDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
FOR KING AND PIERCE COUNTIES, AS WELL AS TOWARDS THE CASCADE
VALLEYS. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING DECENT RH RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW, WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS APPROXIMATELY A 50 TO
70% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH COUNTY
NORTHWARDS, WITH LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGING WILL
THEN BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WARM, DRY WEATHER AND
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. JD
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
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