737  
FXUS66 KSEW 091640  
AFDSEW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA  
940 AM PDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON  
TODAY, BRINGING IN LIGHT RAIN ALONGSIDE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND  
LOCALLY BREEZY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBOUND BY FRIDAY,  
WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. DOPPLER RADAR HAS  
SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR.  
NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WITH READING IN THE  
LOWER TO MID 60S.  
 
COLD FRONT JUST REACHED THE NORTH COAST AT 16Z/9AM THIS MORNING.  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD  
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY  
BREEZY WINDS AS WELL UP TO 25-30 MPH. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE  
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTH CASCADES, WHERE  
GENERALLY UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST. ELSEWHERE, AREAS  
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWLANDS NORTH OF EVERETT WILL SEE UP TO A  
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN SHADOWING  
WILL CAUSE AREAS AROUND THE PUGET SOUND TO SEE LITTLE TO NO RAIN  
ACCUMULATION. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
BETWEEN SEATTLE AND EVERETT, WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE CENTRAL CASCADES AND  
FOOTHILLS. THE INCOMING MOIST MARINE AIR WILL COOL TEMPERATURES  
CONSIDERABLY, WITH HIGHS TODAY PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO  
LOW 70S FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS.  
 
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND AN ADDITIONAL  
ROUND OF INCOMING MOISTURE MAY BRING A DRIZZLE TO SOME AREAS  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE LITTLE  
MORE THAN CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SKIES  
WILL CLEAR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO  
NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON ON  
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL  
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE  
70S ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR (YELLOW)  
HEATRISK, WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK THROUGH THE  
OLYMPIA AND TACOMA METRO AREAS SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND.  
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW  
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS WILL GIVE ANOTHER  
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF INCREASED HEATRISK AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN  
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY MODERATED  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE PROVIDING DECENT OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY  
RECOVERIES. FORECAST MODELS AMPLIFY THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE ON  
TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THIS MAY  
BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK TO THE REGION,  
ESPECIALLY IF WINDS SHIFT EASTWARD AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.  
 
15/FELTON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
A WEAK SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN  
WASHINGTON THIS MORNING, BRINGING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO  
THE TERMINALS. LOWERED CEILINGS THIS MORNING RANGING FROM MVFR TO  
LIFR. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY  
INLAND, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAVING THE MAJORITY OF SHOWERS  
ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH THESE SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL  
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, HOWEVER GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A  
CONVERGENCE ZONE DEVELOPING ALONG SNOHOMISH/KING COUNTIES TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TONIGHT, WITH  
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE LOW-END VFR ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS.  
 
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS  
OF 8-13 KT, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A  
CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON (AFTER 22Z-23Z) ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
CONFINED TO KPAE, BUT MAY MAKE IT SOUTH TO KBFI.  
 
KSEA...LOWERED CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT INTO  
LOW-END VFR. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS MODELS ARE  
STRUGGLING TO ARRIVE TO A CONSENSUS. A CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL FORM TO  
THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z-23Z AROUND KPAE. AT THIS TIME,  
THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL.  
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS  
OF 10-13 KT, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.  
 
29  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH  
THE WATERS TODAY. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS LATE LAST NIGHT INTO THE MORNING. GIVEN THE PATCHY  
NATURE OF THE FOG (BASED ON SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS), OPTED TO  
ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS/GRAYS HARBOR  
AREAS THROUGH 18Z. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (SPREADING INLAND ACROSS  
INTERIOR WATERS NOT COVERED FROM THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS IN THE FAR  
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS). WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST  
TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THE ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS  
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE THE CENTRAL/EAST SECTIONS OF THE  
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA (ISSUED A NEW SCA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING). A COUPLE SPOTS IN PUGET SOUND MAY ALSO SEE A  
COUPLE GUSTS TO 20 KT.  
 
POST FRONT, HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING  
DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AS A RESULT. SOME FOG/LOW STRATUS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2 TO 4 TO 6 TO 8 FEET THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE  
SEAS THIS WEEKEND POTENTIALLY BECOMING STEEP (WITH SHORTER PERIODS).  
 
HPR  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION  
TODAY, WITH ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING IN COOLER AND MORE  
MOIST CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WETTING RAINS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND PACIFIC  
COAST.  
 
UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE  
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WARM, DRY WEATHER AND ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY OF  
THE PERIOD, WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 25% TO 35% RANGE  
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND.  
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK BUT THE  
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO THE DEGREE OF ONSHORE FLOW  
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
CONDITIONS WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,  
WITH FORECAST MODELS HINTING AT A SHIFT TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND EAST  
WINDS THROUGH THE CASCADE GAPS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE CLOSELY MONITORED.  
 
15  
 

 
   
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT  
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-  
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.  
 

 
 

 
 
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