180
FXUS66 KSEW 120418
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
918 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2025
UPDATE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE COASTLINE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE REFER TO
AN UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SKIRTS THE AREA.
ANOTHER WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90S FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST, TOPPING OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF MORNING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST, SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, AND ALONG
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
STARTS TO AMPLIFY OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE 70S ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR
MOST SPOTS, BUT MAY NOT DIP DOWN PAST THE LOW 60S FOR THE URBAN
CORRIDORS EAST OF THE SOUND (GENERALLY FROM TACOMA TO EVERETT).
AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SOUND ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
SLIDING DOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY AND SKIRTING WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WHILE THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, IT WILL ACT TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS AND WILL MAINLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE BUILDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM UP ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET ACROSS THE
REGION- AND ESPECIALLY IN HOW WARM THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH OF LOWLANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SOUND LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE HEAT DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH GENERALLY INDICATE AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY
WITH FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY- WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A
SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SKIRTS THE AREA.
ANOTHER WARM UP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90S FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND, PROMOTING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME STRATUS ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BUT REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE COAST, TOPPING OUT
IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO TODAY.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF MORNING STRATUS ALONG THE COAST, SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, AND ALONG
THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SATURDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
STARTS TO AMPLIFY OFFSHORE, WITH TEMPERATURES LOOKING TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND IN THE 70S ALONG THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S FOR
MOST SPOTS, BUT MAY NOT DIP DOWN PAST THE LOW 60S FOR THE URBAN
CORRIDORS EAST OF THE SOUND (GENERALLY FROM TACOMA TO EVERETT).
AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
SOUND ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER BY SUNDAY, EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR
LOWLANDS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
SLIDING DOWN ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON MONDAY AND SKIRTING WESTERN
WASHINGTON. WHILE THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BRING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, IT WILL ACT TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER AND A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY'S HIGHS AND WILL MAINLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH A THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE BUILDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER WARM UP ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW WARM TEMPERATURES WILL GET ACROSS THE
REGION- AND ESPECIALLY IN HOW WARM THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH OF LOWLANDS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SOUND LOOKING TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND WILL PROVIDE LITTLE
RELIEF TO THE HEAT DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK TO WESTERN WASHINGTON.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, THOUGH GENERALLY INDICATE AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND STARTING THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY
WITH FURTHER COOLING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY- WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. STRATUS
WITH IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING DOWN THE STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA THIS EVENING. THE STRATUS WILL SLOWLY MOVING INLAND
OVERNIGHT REACHING JUST EAST OF THE PUGET SOUND BY 15Z. THE
STRATUS WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE COASTLINE 18Z-20Z.
KSEA...HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS 14Z-17Z. NORTHERLY
WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS. FELTON
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS LEADING TO INCREASED LOW-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INNER COASTAL WATERS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN STRAIT
OF JUAN DE FUCA AND ADMIRALTY INLET WILL EASE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT
DIURNAL PUSHES THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, WINDS WILL PICK UP
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK (EXCEEDING 20 KT IN THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT). SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM 3-5
FEET TODAY TO 5 TO 7 FEET THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING UP TO 6 TO 10
FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MCMILLIAN/FELTON
FIRE WEATHER
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS
EVENING TO REACH THE 25 TO 35% RANGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AROUND AND SOUTH OF PUGET SOUND. MORE ROBUST ONSHORE
FLOW THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP USHER IN MORE MOIST AIR WITH MIN RHS
BACK INTO THE 30% TO 40% RANGE, DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE 80S. A TROUGH LOOKS TO EDGE TOWARDS THE REGION ON MONDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINNING TUESDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE GENERAL WARMING TREND PEAKING NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAINS
ON TRACK, WITH A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. FLOW
LOOKS TO PERIODICALLY TURN OFFSHORE, PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT, BUT
WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE INTERIOR. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN ELEVATED BEGINNING TUESDAY AS MINIMUM RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
INTO THE 25% TO 35% RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CASCADES AND THE
INTERIOR LOWLANDS SOUTH OF SEATTLE. WHILE THE TREND HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARDS LESS-ELEVATION CONDITIONS, WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET FOR NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
62
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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