264
FXUS66 KSEW 131653
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
953 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION. A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY ON MONDAY AS A SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SKIRTS THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 90S FOR SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING, WHILE STRATUS REMAINS BANKED UP ALONG THE COAST. CLEARING
SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TODAY. THE OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK, WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THIS MORNING ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTENT OF
CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS BELOW, WITH UPDATES MADE TO THE AVIATION SECTION. 14
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN WA TODAY WITH
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR
WILL REACH THE 80S TO LOWER 90S LEADING TO MODERATE HEATRISK.
IT'LL BE COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE 60S DUE TO NW ONSHORE
WINDS.
THE AIR MASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS
DOWN FROM B.C. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH 60S AGAIN
ALONG THE COAST. SHOWERS WITH THIS TROUGH ARE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND EAST OF THE CASCADE CREST.
HEIGHTS REBUILD ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED
OFFSHORE (ALONG 140W). A THERMAL TROUGH WILL FORM ALONG THE COAST
AND THE INTERIOR WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AGAIN
WITH MODERATE HEATRISK. 33
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LEAD TO WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S, AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND ON THURSDAY WITH
BROADER RELIEF ON THE COAST, BUT STILL WARM IN THE INTERIOR. A
WEAK PUSH ON FRIDAY BRINGS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. SAME
FOR THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS. STILL NO PRECIP IN
SIGHT. 33
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH TODAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH GENERALLY 8 TO 12 KNOTS, WITH KCLM SEEING MORE WESTERLY
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25
KTS.
KSEA...VFR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. N/NE
WINDS THIS MORNING 4 TO 8 KNOTS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z GENERALLY
AROUND 9 TO 14 KNOTS, WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AS WELL. NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE EVENING.
MAZURKIEWICZ/MCMILLIAN
MARINE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH GENTLE LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WESTERLY PUSHES DOWN THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MORE STRENGTH IN THE WESTERLY PUSH
TONIGHT, THEREFORE HAVE PUT OUT A GALE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT FOR THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH STEEP SEAS,
SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING.
THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH PERIODIC INCREASES OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AREA WATERS.
COMBINED SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 8 TO 10
FEET BY EARLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MAZURKIEWICZ
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS WEEKEND. MODEST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FOR
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS. HOWEVER, THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES
DIP DOWN INTO THE 25-30% RANGE FOR AREAS IN THE INTERIOR. A WEAK
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY, BOOSTING CLOUD COVER
AND HUMIDITIES, AS WELL AS BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
REGION. THIS IS A SHORT BREAK AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WHILE FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY, THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME BREEZES
OVERLAYING THE LOWEST RHS MAY ELEVATE CONCERNS AROUND WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AS A THERMAL TROUGH
MAY BUILD OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD FURTHER ENHANCE INSTABILITY
AS WELL. THAT SAID, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WIDE
RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
REMAINS A BIT LOWER IN THE DETAILS OF POTENTIAL ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. CULLEN
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO
CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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