826
FXUS66 KSEW 141654
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
954 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2025
UPDATE
NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. A PAUSE IN THE
WARMING TREND TODAY WILL RESUME TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE
SEE THE AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS BELOW FOR UPDATES TO THOSE
FORECASTS.
SYNOPSIS
A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AS A SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTHWARD FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
SKIRTS THE AREA. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOWLAND LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS WARM UP. A
COOLING TREND THEN COMMENCES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BRIEF AND SOMEWHAT
RESPITE FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A
TROUGH MOVING DOWN FROM B.C. INTERIOR TEMPS ARE FORECAST IN THE
70S TODAY OR CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER AND
IN THE 60S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH ARE
MOSTLY NORTH OF THE BORDER AND EAST OF THE CREST.
THE HEAT IS BACK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBUILD, WITH
THE RIDGE NOW CENTERED OFFSHORE NEAR 140W, AND A THERMAL TROUGH
FORMING OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR WILL REACH THE
80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ON WEDNESDAY -
LEADING TO MODERATE HEATRISK. AT THE COAST, THE BEACHES WILL BE
IN THE 60S WITH 70S-80S A FEW MILES INLAND. WINDS ALOFT ON
TUESDAY WILL TURN MORE N/NE WHICH MAY BRING CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE INTO WESTERN WA. PER HRRR SMOKE FORECASTS, THE SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS LOOK TO BE MAINLY ALOFT. THE FLOW WILL TURN
WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY FOR LESS SMOKE INTRUSION OVER THE
WESTSIDE. 33
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK ONSHORE PUSHES WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN WARM AND IN THE 80S.
A STRONGER PUSH THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO FINALLY BRINGS TEMPS BACK
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIP IN SIGHT. 33
AVIATION
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE. VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
MORNING AS STRATUS WASN'T AS EXPANSIVE THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. BUT,
STRATUS REMAINS ALONG THE COAST AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SHOULD
LINGER UNTIL 18Z (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHQM). NORTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS THIS MORNING TURNING SOMEWHAT SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK NORTHERLY TONIGHT AND LIGHTEN.
KSEA...VFR THIS MORNING AND INTO THE DAY. N WINDS THIS MORNING
AROUND 3 TO 6 KT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN AROUND 00Z BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE GIVING WAY TO LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WESTERLY
PUSHES DOWN THE STRAIT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
VARIOUS STRENGTHS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND STEEP SEAS. THERMAL TROUGHING
LOOKS TO BUILD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH PERIODIC
INCREASES OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AREA WATERS.
COASTAL SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MCMILLIAN
FIRE WEATHER
A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BRIEF RELIEF
TODAY FROM THE VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, SPREADING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT TO SEE AFTERNOON RH VALUES DIP DOWN CLOSE TO CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDING
NORTH OVER THE CASCADES. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THIS BUILDS, EXPECT TO SEE AT
LEAST SOME EAST COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CASCADE
GAPS IN ZONE 659 AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF 657 AND 658. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER IN SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD EASTERLY WIND AND SPEEDS MAY
NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
CRITICAL, BUT THIS MAY SERVE TO FURTHER REDUCE RHS.
ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH,
EXPECT TO SEE A DEEPER MIXED LAYER AND INCREASED INSTABILITY
WITH MIXING HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY RISING INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IS STILL LOWER, THE MID WEEK PERIOD BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING FOR BOTH EXISTING INCIDENTS AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OF CONCERN IF NEW ONES WERE TO BEGIN.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE RANGE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS THAT
LEAVE CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN NORMAL. CULLEN
HYDROLOGY
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CITY OF SEATTLE-DOWNTOWN EVERETT / MARYSVILLE AREA-
EASTERN KITSAP COUNTY-EASTSIDE-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL KING COUNTY-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF PIERCE AND
SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF SNOHOMISH
AND NORTHERN KING COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF
THURSTON AND LEWIS COUNTIES-FOOTHILLS AND VALLEYS OF THE
NORTH CASCADES-LOWLANDS OF LEWIS AND SOUTHERN THURSTON
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF PIERCE AND SOUTHERN KING COUNTIES-
LOWLANDS OF WESTERN SKAGIT AND NORTHWESTERN SNOHOMISH
COUNTIES-LOWLANDS OF WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-MIDDLE
CHEHALIS RIVER VALLEY-NORTHERN HOOD CANAL-OLYMPIA AND
SOUTHERN PUGET SOUND-SHORELINE / LYNNWOOD / SOUTH EVERETT
AREA-SOUTHERN HOOD CANAL.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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