034
FXUS66 KSEW 091706
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1006 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. MODERATE HEATRISK IS FORECAST FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 80S TO LOW 90S. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND
BELOW ALONG WITH UPDATES FROM THE AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM, BRINGING
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE STRATUS TO THE
PACIFIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, SCATTERING OUT BY THE LATE
MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ARE ON TRACK TO PEAK TODAY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS, WITH HIGHS
NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. WHILE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST, THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR
(YELLOW) HEATRISK ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TO START THE WEEKEND.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD AMPLIFIES, WITH HIGHS INCREASING SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
WESTERN WASHINGTON. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL SEE ANOTHER MORNING
OF LOW STRATUS WHILE CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INLAND. TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME
LOWLAND AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE PUGET SOUND REACHING 90
DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE (ORANGE) HEATRISK
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF TO THE ELEVATED DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
MONDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR STORY, WITH A FEW DEGREES OF CONTINUED
WARMING. MODERATE HEATRISK WILL EXPAND SLIGHTLY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON, WITH A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF MAJOR (RED) HEATRISK
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AREAS ACROSS THE
CHEHALIS RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF OLYMPIA
WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S EAST
OF THE PUGET SOUND ON MONDAY, AREAS ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
WILL SEE A MODERATE CHANCE (50% TO 70%) OF REACHING 90 DEGREES AS
WELL. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, NO DAILY RECORDS IN WESTERN
WASHINGTON ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BROKEN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE OVER THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DECREASES INTO TUESDAY, AS FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES OVER HOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
START TO BREAK DOWN. A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MID-WEEK, BRINGING A COOL DOWN AND CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF MORE CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, BUT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF INCOMING PRECIPITATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
15
AVIATION
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. STRATUS THIS MORNING REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE COAST, MAY SEE SOME STRATUS PASS THROUGH COASTAL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING TO GO DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 7-11 KT.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
29
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE UP THE COASTLINE SUNDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT INLAND
MONDAY.
SEAS BUILDING TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH 10 OR 11 FOOT SEAS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OVER
THE INNER COASTAL WATERS WILL BE JUST UNDER 10 FEET.
POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TUESDAY NIGHT.
FELTON
FIRE WEATHER
THE NEXT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND PEAK ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND 30S,
WHICH WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND IN THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ENSEMBLES
THEN SUGGEST TROUGHING REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN BY
MIDWEEK, WHICH WOULD HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASE
ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH CASCADES AND THE PACIFIC COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY.
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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