053
FXUS66 KSEW 091644
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
944 AM PDT THU OCT 9 2025
UPDATE
NO UPDATES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE
AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES TO THAT FORECAST.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALLOWING FOR PERIODIC ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOL CONDITIONS. AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT STEADIER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH AN UPPER LOW REMAINING CENTERED OFFSHORE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL SPREAD IN ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN RATHER SOLID CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, SO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST OFFSHORE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW WHERE
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MIX OF SHOWERS
AND DRIER WEATHER IN BETWEEN THESE DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH
THE UPPER LOW. EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS IT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION AS WELL AS USHER COOLER
AIR ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. THIS LOOKS TO BRING TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, EXPECT THE SNOW LEVEL TO FALL TO AROUND
4000-5000 FT SUNDAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS. CURRENT CHANCES ARE STILL AROUND 50% FOR
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES AT STEVENS PASS. WHILE ACCUMULATION AT
THE SURFACE MAY BE LIMITED, THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO PLACES LIKE RAINY PASS AND PARADISE
AT MOUNT RAINIER. AS A RESULT, THOSE THAT PLAN TO HEAD TO THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
ENCOUNTER SNOW AND COLD CONDITIONS AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE
WEATHER FORECAST IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE UPPER LOW TRACKING SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA. THIS BEGINS
TO PUSH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM THE REGION FOR A
DRIER TREND. AS THIS OCCURS, HOWEVER, WE MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION
OUT OF THE DAMP, CLOUDY PATTERN AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST IN THE MORNINGS AS LOW TEMPERATURES TREND
CLOSER TO THE 30S FOR THE SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE WATER.
AVIATION
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE
TODAY, SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS, TURNING NORTHERLY 4-8
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH CIGS ABOVE 6000 FT FOR MOST
TERMINALS. OLM IS THE EXCEPTION WITH IFR STRATUS LINGERING, ALTHOUGH
FOG APPEARS TO HAVE LIFTED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN THERE
AROUND 18Z THIS LATE MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
TONIGHT, WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
LOWERING DOWN INTO MORE UNIFORM MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
CARRYING OVER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT BY VERY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WILL SEE CIGS FALL TO MVFR /AROUND 2000 FT/ BETWEEN
09-12Z REMAINING THERE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WIND
DISCUSSION FROM ABOVE APPLIES, WITH SEA EXPECTED TO BE ON THE HIGHER
END OF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5 KTS.
18
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE OF OREGON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP TODAY, WINDS WILL BECOME ELEVATED ACROSS THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS LOOK TO JUST REACH SCA CRITERIA, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
EASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND MORE TO THE SOUTH
AS WELL. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE NE PACIFIC PUSHES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE LOW. WINDS LOOK TO
REACH HIGH-END SCA CRITERIA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
40-70% CHANCES FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS ALSO LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA
AS WELL, BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WASHINGTON
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN OFFSHORE, WITH WINDS
REQUIRING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE STRAIT, WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITIES (40-70%) FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
ON MONDAY IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT.
SEAS 7 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS BUILD SATURDAY TO 12 TO 16 FT OVER THE WEEKEND.
SEAS THEN LOOK TO EASE SUNDAY, BECOMING 6 TO 8 FT FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
62
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
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