797
FXUS66 KSEW 191613
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
913 AM PDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
POST FRONTAL COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS SETTLING OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TONIGHT
AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK SYSTEM WILL TRY
AND MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE MONDAY. NEXT FRONT ARRIVING WEDNESDAY.
STRONGER SYSTEM FRIDAY WITH COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW
ALONG WITH UPDATES TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST AVALANCHE CENTER OBSERVATIONS
ON MOUNT BAKER SHOW THE TEMPERATURE AT 5000 FEET IS ALREADY DOWN
TO 31 DEGREES. MODEL 850 MB WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE WITH
THE BEST OROGRAPHICS OVER THE NORTH CASCADES. LOOKING FOR UP TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTH CASCADES
TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
CURRENT TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WILL DRY UP
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE LOWLANDS FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT WITH THE OROGRAPHICS
QUICKLY WEAKENING ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 4500 TO
5000 FOOT RANGE. SOME CLEARING IN THE LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER
LOCATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID
40S.
WEAK SYSTEM RIDING BY TO THE NORTH MONDAY WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. THE RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE MOST
OF THE FRONT LEAVING JUST A CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS. LOTS OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO REACH THE AREA STILL WELL OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MAKE TUESDAY THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE NEXT WEEK WITH MOST PLACES GETTING INTO THE
LOWER 60S. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL MORNING TUESDAY WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY BRINGING RAIN
BACK TO THE AREA. WARM FRONT RIGHT ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY BUT NOT
A DIRECT HIT WITH THE SYSTEM MOSTLY GOING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THERE WAS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE POSSIBLE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IN THE MODEL RUNS LAST NIGHT. BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS MORNING THAT FRIDAY IS GOING TO BE THE WET AND BREEZY/WINDY
DAY. MORE SOLUTIONS NOW INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
OFFSHORE STALLING THE FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY. WITH
THE JET AIMED INTO OREGON THIS COULD STRETCH THE FRONT OUT AN
WEAKEN IT A LITTLE. COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. FELTON
AVIATION
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON. CEILINGS HAVE MAINTAINED VFR
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION SO FAR THIS MORNING BEING PWT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO DROP LATER THIS MORNING, THROUGH MODELS
HAVE CONDITIONS FLIP-FLOPPING AROUND THE 3000 FT MARK, SO CIGS MAY
HOVER AROUND MVFR IN/AROUND SHOWERS, TO LOW-END VFR WHERE SKIES ARE
MORE BROKEN. CEILINGS BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS
TAPER OFF, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWERING STRATUS AND FOG TO FILL
IN EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
INSTABLILTY WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE TOO SLIM TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING,
BECOMING 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AS STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS
REINFORCED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO
EASE THIS EVENING.
KSEA...CIGS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO VFR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER LATER THIS MORNING ONCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FILLS
IN, BUT WILL BE HOVERING ON THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. MORE SOLID RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING ONCE SHOWER ACTIVITY
TAPERS OFF, THOUGH THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP GOING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 18 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT BY 18Z THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEING TO SLOWLY EASE THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS BEGINNING TO CEASE AFTER AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING.
62/21
MARINE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS GOING OVER THE WATERS.
WESTERLY BURST BEHIND THE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA. WINDS EASING TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS FOR SOME
OF THE WATERS. STRONGER SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS,
ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN INLAND
WATERS.
SEAS BUILDING TODAY INTO THE 15 TO 20 FOOT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDING MONDAY TO 10 TO
12 FEET WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS RISING
BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 FOOT RANGE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
HIGHER SEAS WITH THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL NOT
RESULT IN ANY HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
AREA WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WETTER SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE TAPPING
INTO SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE OLYMPICS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH, 6000 TO 7000 FEET, KEEPING SOME OF
THE WATER IN THE OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW INSTEAD OF RUNOFF.
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS SOLUTION TO CHANGE. THE
FIRST SKOKOMISH RIVER FLOOD OF THE SEASON IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER
10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT MONDAY FOR EAST ENTRANCE
U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PUGET SOUND
AND HOOD CANAL.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page