956
FXUS66 KSEW 222238
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
338 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA WILL BRING RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND, DEVELOPING, BUT STRONG SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND WIND. COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS BELOW ALL OF THE
PASSES BY SUNDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
TODAYS WEAK SYSTEM
WILL FULLY EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING LEAVING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS EXPECT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND SKAGIT COUNTY NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED BY WHIDBEY ISLAND
NORTH INTO SKAGIT AND WHATCOM COUNTIES IN THE EVENING WITH
GUSTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD 40 TO 45 MPH.
RAIN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LOOK SLOW - PERHAPS
NOW WAITING TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST. FRIDAY WILL REMAIN A GENERALLY WET AND
BLUSTERY DAY. BALLPARK PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN A HALF TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR WITH AROUND TWO INCHES ALONG
THE COAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE OLYMPICS WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 6000-7000 FOOT
RANGE MAKING THE PRECIPITATION RAIN IN ALL THE PASSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
LARGE, STEEP SEAS TO THE WASHINGTON COAST WITH A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR LARGE,
BREAKING WAVES 20 TO 22 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GRAND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGH ANOTHER, DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE NE PACIFIC EARLY IN THE
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATING 20% OF THE GEFS AND ENS
MEMBERS FORECASTING A STRONGER SOLUTION FOR WASHINGTON AND
OREGON WITH THIS SYTEM AND IT REMAINS WORTH MONITORING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING BELOW THE HIGHER PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SNOW LEVELS BELOW ALL OF THE PASSES BY SUNDAY MORNING. A COOL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUNDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 3000
FEET. ACTIVE WEATHER LINGERING INTO EARLY WEEK REMAINS A SAFE
BET.
AVIATION
SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET TODAY SUBSIDING A LITTLE TONIGHT THEN BUILDING
TO 10 TO 14 FEET THURSDAY AND AS HIGH AS 20 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDING SLOWLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING UP AROUND 10
TO 13 FEET SUNDAY. FELTONAS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INLAND ACROSS
THE CASCADES. AS A RESPONSE, LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS SHIFTED MORE
ONSHORE. MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED MVFR CIGS UNDER
HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT, MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
SHOULD DISCOURAGE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/FOG FORMATION BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF IFR/LIFR CRITERIA BEING MET.
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY AS WELL BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
OFFSHORE BRINGS RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KSEA...VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WE'RE POST-FRONTAL AT THE TERMINAL. FOR
TONIGHT, MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD CARRY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE NBM IS SIGNALING A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF MVFR CIGS
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THE HREF IS EVEN MORE LESS IMPRESSED WITH
A 10% CHANCE OCCURING DURING THIS TIME. VFR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY AS WELL. BREEZY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING BUT SSW WINDS ARE TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT.
MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA WATERS
THURSDAY WILL RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
NEAR 990 MB WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND LATER SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL. EVEN WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS DONT REACH GALE CRITERIA, PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH THAT
FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE PRETTY COMMON.
SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET TONGIGHT WILL BUILD TO 10 TO 14 FEET THURSDAY
AND AS HIGH AS 20 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDING
SLOWLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ENDING UP AROUND 10 TO 13 FEET
SUNDAY.
A SECOND DEVELOPING SYSTEM ARRIVING SATURDAY CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER ALL THE WATERS.
WINDS EASING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THE STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE OLYMPICS AND
CASCADES WITH SNOW LEVELS STARTING OUT AT 5000 TO 6000 FEET.
THE SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3500 FEET DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL DRIVE UP ALL RIVERS, BUT
EVEN THE MOST FLOOD PRONE SKOKOMISH RIVER LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
CREST A BIT BELOW ACTION STAGE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL INTO NEXT
WEEK COULD PUSH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER CLOSER TO FLOOD STAGE AS
MORE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN TO WESTERN
WASHINGTON AND AREA RIVERS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN.
IN ADDITION, RAIN RATES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MAY BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO BRING A RISK OF URBAN/SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH POOR/BLOCKED DRAINAGE (LEAVES WILL BE
FALLING DURING THIS EVENT DUE TO GUSTY WINDS). THESE RAINFALL RATES
WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE MORE VULNERABLE BURN SCARS IN TERMS OF
FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.
JBB
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR GRAYS
HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S.
WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
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