687
FXUS66 KSEW 231052
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
352 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AREA TODAY. STRONG FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING DURING THE DAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS
FOR SATURDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING SUNDAY DOWN TO THE 3000 TO 3500 FOOT RANGE BRINGING UP
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ON ALL THE PASSES. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDY SKIES OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN OUT AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT OFFSHORE STARTED ALONG THE NORTH COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM/10Z WERE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH RAIN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTH COAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES FROM THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE CENTRAL
PUGET SOUND REGION. FOR THE MOST PART THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE INTERIOR WILL BE DRY. WESTERN WASHINGTON IN THE WARM SECTOR
TODAY SO EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER HIGHS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN MOST PLACES.
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EASTWARD
PROGRESS TONIGHT BEING SLOWED DOWN BY A DIGGING TROUGH BEHIND
THE FRONT. RAIN INCREASING ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT BECOMING
HEAVY ALONG THE NORTH COAST WHILE EAST OF PUGET SOUND THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE THE RAIN DOES NOT START UNTIL THE EARLY PART OF THE
MORNING COMMUTE ( AROUND 5 AM ). WINDS PICKING UP ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
COMMON AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS SEAS WILL BE
PEAKING AROUND 20 FEET TONIGHT. WITH A CLAM DIG TONIGHT AND A
RELATIVELY LOW TIDE WILL STAY WITH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRONT STALLING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY MAKING FOR A WET
AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
INTERIOR FROM 12Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY IN THE ONE HALF TO ONE
INCH RANGE. ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS. SNOW LEVELS IN THE 6000 TO 7000 FOOT
RANGE MAKING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE RAIN IN ALL THE PASSES.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL EASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FRONT WEAKENING. HIGHS FRIDAY NEAR 60.
FRONT MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE
WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING OVERNIGHT
POST FRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL. QUICK CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER SNOHOMISH COUNTY WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S.
FAST MOVING SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NOT LOOKING AS DANGEROUS AS IT
DID 24 HOURS AGO. RAIN SPREADING BACK OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON IN
THE MORNING. PARENT LOW WITH THE FRONT STILL NEAR 990 MB BUT THE
SURFACE LOW IS MORE DIFFUSE AND TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY AND
WESTERLY TRACK. THIS STILL DOESN'T MEAN IT'S NOT GOING TO BE
WINDY AGAIN ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
SATURDAY BUT THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS HAS DECREASED. SNOW LEVELS
LOWERING TO 4000 TO 5000 FEET BUT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS NOT A GOOD DIRECTION FOR DECENT SNOWFALL EXCEPT ON THE
VOLCANOES. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MID 50S.
FRONT MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. SURFACE GRADIENTS
INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH THE KOLM-KBLI GRADIENT POPPING UP TO
PLUS 6 OR 7 MB. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A QUICK POST FRONTAL
BLAST OF WINDS, SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERLY FOR THE COAST. FOR THE METRO AREA THIS WILL BE THE
WINDIEST TIMEFRAME IN THE SHORT TERM WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING. FELTON
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUING TO
SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3000-3500
FEET SUNDAY. NOTHING ORGANIZED MOVING INTO THE AREA JUST
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. POSSIBLE STEVENS PASS
AND MOUNT BAKER GET 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNT RAINIER. SNOQUALMIE
PASS COULD ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. FOR THE
LOWLANDS A COOL AND SHOWERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER
50S.
OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BE OUTLIERS WITH THEIR MOSTLY DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE ENSEMBLES SHOWING A
MORE WETTER TREND. THERE IS SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE ARE BIG TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES WITH THE
ENSEMBLES INDICATING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A RAIN LIKELY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
FELTON
AVIATION
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON. MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHQM, WHERE LOW
STRATUS HAS SPREAD INLAND. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
AHEAD, WHICH WILL HELP MITIGATE THE INLAND SPREAD OF THE
STRATUS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ALONG WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KSEA...VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. S/SW WINDS THIS MORNING 4
TO 8 KNOTS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN.
MAZURKIEWICZ
MARINE
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
AREA WATERS FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR 990 MB WILL
REACH THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WIT WITH THE GALES SPREADING INLAND FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA TONIGHT. WINDS EASING FRIDAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS EITHER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE WEEKEND
FRONT. WINDS SETTLING DOWN SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 20 FEET LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRIDAY INTO THE 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AND TO 10 TO
13 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PEAKING OUT AGAIN AROUND 20 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING SUNDAY
DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. FELTON
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE OLYMPICS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000
FEET WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO
NEAR 6000 FEET FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW DECREASING THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. CURRENT HYDROGRAPH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
HAS THE RIVER CRESTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR ACTION STAGE.
ACTION STAGE IS A FOOT AND A HALF BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL RISE SHARPLY
LATER FRIDAY WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE CASCADES AND THE COAST AND A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS. RIVERS STARTING FROM VERY LOW LEVELS SO
EVEN THE WITH SHARP RISES LATE FRIDAY THE RIVERS WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE RISK OF
URBAN/SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
POOR/BLOCKED DRAINAGE (LEAVES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS EVENT
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS). RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE
MORE VULNERABLE BURN SCARS IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT
GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON PDT TODAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT
GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE
TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO
60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM.
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