219
FXUS66 KSEW 231715
AFDSEW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1015 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
THE AREA TODAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN
WASHINGTON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE RIGHT ON ITS HEELS
FOR SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW ON ALL THE
PASSES. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER W WA THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE A FEW BREAKS HERE AND THERE THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
PEEK OF BLUE SKY OR SUN. LATEST RADAR SHOWING ANY ECHOES THAT COULD
PRODUCT LIGHT PRECIP LARGELY FIZZLING OUT...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT HERE AND THERE.
AS CAN BE SEEN FROM ABOVE RADAR ANALYSIS, THE INCOMING SYSTEM HAS
TAPPED THE BRAKES A BIT...WITH MAIN RAIN/WIND THREAT HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE
INTERIOR. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HOLD COURT OVER THE AREA
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON CHOICE OF MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEMBER AND
LOCATION, THERE IS THE PROSPECT OF SHOWERY CONDITIONS GIVING WAY TO
BRIEF DRYING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ANY
BREAK WILL BE SHORT THOUGH, AS THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
ARRIVING IN THE PACNW BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WITH REGARDS TO THE PRIMARY SYSTEM
WILL BE EVALUATING IF ANY WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR LAND
ZONES...ESPECIALLY THOSE LOCATIONS MORE PRONE TO INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS SUCH AS THE COAST, THE SAN JUANS AND THE NW INTERIOR /WESTERN
LOWLANDS OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES/. INHERITED FORECAST
SUGGESTS SOME SCRUTINY WILL BE NECESSARY NOT ONLY FOR THE PRIMARY
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE FOLLOW-UP SYSTEM SATURDAY. MAY OPT TO
TACKLE THIS PIECEMEAL...FOCUSING ON FRIDAY FIRST, THEN SHIFTING
FOCUS TO SATURDAY ON FUTURE SHIFTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN
LINE WITH TYPICAL AUTUMN ACTIVITY, 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH
PRIMARY SYSTEM, UP TO 0.5 OF AN INCH WITH SECONDARY FOR THE SEATTLE
METRO AREA AND MOST LOWLAND AREAS...HIGHER ALONG THE COAST AND IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SPEAKING OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH IN THE NEAR TERM TO LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MOUNTAIN SNOW-BASED HEADLINES, EVEN THOUGH
SNOW LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO FALL FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
IT IS ALSO WORTH A MENTION THAT SEAS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 FT
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING FRIDAY COULD RAISE SOME HIGH SURF
CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH WAVES MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA, COASTAL
ACTIVITIES SUCH AS CLAM DIGGING WILL BE IMPACTED AND THUS, GIVEN
THIS UNIQUE MIXTURE OF CIRCUMSTANCES, INHERITED HIGH SURF ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN MILD ALTHOUGH COOLING FROM DAY TO DAY
COINCIDING WITH EACH SYSTEM'S PASSAGE. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
THANKS TO A WARM FRONT NICKING THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. FROM HERE, HIGHS COOL A LITTLE
BIT DAY BY DAY, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND
SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
18
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUING TO
SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3000-3500
FEET SUNDAY, HOWEVER BY THIS POINT PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO MORE
SHOWERY AND DISORGANIZED. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE STEVENS PASS AND
MOUNT BAKER GET 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON MOUNT RAINIER. SNOQUALMIE PASS COULD
ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. FOR THE LOWLANDS A COOL
AND SHOWERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHEN IT COMES TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STRETCHING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY VARYING DEGREES
OF RIDGING TRYING TO SET UP OVER THE W US, WHICH, DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR NORTHWARD IT BUILDS, WOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER THE PACNW. IT IS CERTAINLY WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN HERE,
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE THE GFS AND ECMWF WHERE
THERE IS NO CLEAR SIGNAL AS TO WHICH DAYS WILL BE WET AND WHICH ONES
WILL BE DRY. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ONLY MUDDY THE SITUATION FURTHER,
WITH JUST AS MANY MEMBERS ADVERTISING DRY CONDITIONS AS THOSE
SHOWING WET SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, INCLINED TO SIDE MORE
WITH WETTER SOLUTIONS THAN DRY...AND CURRENT NBM SEEMS CONTENT TO DO
THE SAME. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS GENERALLY ACTIVE PERIOD
UNTIL FORECAST COMES INTO BETTER FOCUS/ALIGNMENT.
FELTON/18
AVIATION
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS DEEP UPPER
TROUGHING APPROACHES WESTERN WASHINGTON. MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHQM, WHERE LOW STRATUS
PERSISTS. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD TODAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. S/SW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS, ALONG WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
KSEA...AFTER A BRIEF SPELL OF MVFR CIGS EARLIER THIS MORNING, VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE REBOUNDED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. S/SW WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS WILL INCREASE LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN.
MAZURKIEWICZ/MCMILLIAN
MARINE
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
AREA WATERS FRIDAY. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL REACH THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING INLAND FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE INLAND WATERS
INCLUDING THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA TONIGHT. WINDS EASING FRIDAY.
GALES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS EITHER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE WEEKEND FRONT. CURRENT GALE WATCH THERE LOOKS SOLID
AND MAY OPT TO LEAVE THAT ALONE FOR NOW. WINDS SETTLING DOWN SUNDAY
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 20 FEET LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDING FRIDAY INTO THE 12 TO 16 FOOT RANGE AND TO 10 TO
13 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS BUILDING AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT PEAKING OUT AGAIN AROUND 20 FEET. SEAS SUBSIDING SUNDAY
DROPPING BELOW 10 FEET FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FELTON/18
HYDROLOGY
FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE OLYMPICS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME REMAINING IN THE 2 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS NEAR 7000
FEET WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO
NEAR 6000 FEET FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE OLYMPICS IN THE FORM OF SNOW DECREASING THE
AMOUNT OF RUNOFF. CURRENT HYDROGRAPH FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
HAS THE RIVER CRESTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR ACTION STAGE.
ACTION STAGE IS A FOOT AND A HALF BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE RIVERS IN WESTERN WASHINGTON WILL RISE SHARPLY
LATER FRIDAY WITH TWO TO THREE INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST
FOR THE CASCADES AND THE COAST AND A HALF TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS. RIVERS STARTING FROM VERY LOW LEVELS SO
EVEN THE WITH SHARP RISES LATE FRIDAY THE RIVERS WILL BE WELL
WITHIN THEIR BANKS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IS THE RISK OF
URBAN/SMALL STREAM NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
POOR/BLOCKED DRAINAGE (LEAVES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS EVENT
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS). RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO POSE RISKS TO THE
MORE VULNERABLE BURN SCARS IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING AND
DEBRIS FLOWS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE SKOKOMISH RIVER
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. FELTON
SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY
FOR GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY COAST-NORTHERN WASHINGTON COAST.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10
NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE
OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-WEST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF
JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10
TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES
ISLAND OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO
POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES
ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM-
EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS-WEST
ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ADMIRALTY INLET-CENTRAL U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE
FUCA-EAST ENTRANCE U.S. WATERS STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
NORTHERN INLAND WATERS INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN ISLANDS.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE OUT
10 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE
SHOALWATER OUT 10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10
TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM JAMES ISLAND TO POINT GRENVILLE 10 TO 60 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM POINT GRENVILLE TO CAPE SHOALWATER 10 TO 60
NM.
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